Will unemployment be an issue for young voters?

Youth unemployment is set to be a major issue in the Congress' campaign for the general election, but a lot will also depend on how effectively the party can take its campaign to the young

To counter the "Modi ki guarantee" on state subsidies and schemes, the Congress party has offered five guarantees to the youth.

They centre on employment: a clear timeline to fill three million vacant posts in the central government; the right to apprenticeship for a year with a Rs 8,500 monthly stipend; a law to prevent exam paper leaks; social security for gig workers; and Yuva Roshni, a Rs 5,000 crore national fund distributed across each district as a startup fund for youth. In addition, the party has announced that it will end the Agniveer Scheme, a three-year contract for soldiers in the Indian Army.

Youth unemployment is thus set to be a major issue in the Congress' campaign for the general election.

Data for illegal labour migration abroad indicates how serious the problem is. The US Customs and Border Protection data shows an increase in illegal migrants from India. While the US intercepted 8,027 illegal Indian immigrants in 2018-19, 1,227 in 2019-20, 30,662 in 2020-21, and 63,927 in 2021-22, it went up to 96,917 in 2022-23.

These migrants used the highly risky "donkey" migration route immortalised by Shahrukh Khan's film, Dunki. While better pay may have attracted them to America, increasingly, the push factor of lack of local jobs cannot be denied.

The desperation is evident as unemployed youth sign up for jobs in active war zones. About 800 Indian youngsters went to Israel in December 2023, and many more are waiting to go. They will replace the 80,000 Palestinian workers whose jobs were terminated after the Hamas attack on Israel.

No one can guarantee that these youngsters will return to India alive. Pat Nibin Maxwell, a resident of Kerala, died in a missile strike on an Israeli farm within two months of immigration. Yet, the state governments in Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Mizoram are holding recruitment drives for Israel.

Indian youngsters have also reportedly joined the International Legion created in 2022 to fight in Ukraine. Nearly 100, recruited as "army security helpers", have allegedly been forced to fight along with Russian soldiers. One, Mohammad Afsan from Hyderabad, has been killed fighting the Russian war in Ukraine.

The way in which the prime minister himself is handing out appointment letters for the few government jobs filled suggests that the government is finding it difficult to live up to its propaganda of creating "a promising ecosystem for the Amrit Peedhi (golden generation)" living through "Amrit Kaal (golden era)". 

According to World Bank data, youth unemployment in India in 2022 was 23.22 per cent, higher than in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) estimated that India's youth unemployment rate was 45.4 per cent for 2022-23—six times higher than the country's overall unemployment rate of 7.5 per cent.

Government data is more conservative but nonetheless underlines high unemployment. The National Sample Survey Organisation's Periodic Labour Force Survey for July–September 2023 showed that the unemployment rate for youth between 15 and 29 in urban India was 17.3 per cent, three times higher than the official overall unemployment rate of 6.6 per cent.

In December 2023, Kerala had the highest youth unemployment rate at 28.7 per cent, followed by Goa at 27.4 per cent, Manipur at 19.7, Nagaland at 18.5, Meghalaya at 18 and Haryana, Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Tamil Nadu, all at 17.5 per cent.

The 'National Youth Policy of India 2023' defines the age cohort of 15 to 29 years as "youth". By this definition, India's youth population is 371.4 million or 27.3 per cent of the total population. Government data shows that the labour force participation rate for the 15-29 age group was 44.5 per cent for the period July 2022-June 2023 – i.e., more than half the youth population of India is not in the labour force.

A Lok Niti-CSDS survey released in August 2023 showed that 36 per cent of Indians in the age group 15-34 believed unemployment was their biggest problem. This represented an 18 per cent increase from a similar survey in 2016. The concern about unemployment was deeper among the educated respondents (graduates and above), at 40 per cent, compared to only 27 per cent among non-literate youngsters.

The endless wait for employment, especially among educated youngsters, can erupt in anarchic protests, like the protests across north India against the armed forces' Agniveer scheme. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar also saw youth protests over the alleged "scam" in the Railway Recruitment Board hiring for non-technical categories.

On December 13, two young men jumped into the Lok Sabha chamber from the Visitors' gallery and set off smoke canisters while another young man and woman sprayed coloured gas and shouted slogans outside. They were inspired by the revolutionary youth icon Bhagat Singh to focus attention on unemployment.

Unemployed youth have also erupted in anger over exam paper leaks in recruitment tests. An investigation by the Indian Express newspaper of 41 documented cases of leaks in five years across 15 states showed that the schedules of nearly 14 million applicants vying for about 100,004 jobs were derailed. In the last session of the outgoing Lok Sabha, the Public Examinations (Prevention of Unfair Means) Act was rushed through, providing up to 10 years in jail and a Rs 1 crore fine.

Young voters had catapulted the Bharatiya Janata Party to power in 2014 and 2019. This time, the 18-19 year old entering the electoral process will be in focus. Many states have reported a boom in first-time voters in their finalised electoral rolls. They include West Bengal (1.13 million first-time voters), Odisha (0.75 mn), Maharashtra (1.02 mn), Kerala (0.17 mn), Bihar (0.78 mn), Andhra Pradesh (0.53 mn), Karnataka (1.03 mn) and Tamil Nadu (0.53 mn).

The Congress certainly thinks youth will be more politically and electorally engaged. In its election campaign, it has foregrounded issues of unemployment, public service examinations, social security for gig work, and skill development.

A lot will also depend on how effectively the party can take its campaign to the young. It is also possible that youth, like other voters, may vote on emotional issues, especially those surrounding the Ram Temple.