Unambitious targets

Global climate goals need to be scaled up at COP

Ahead of the 28th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to be held in Dubai, the United Nations Environment Programme released its Emissions Gap Report. This COP is supposed to be an occasion for a “global stocktake”, noting how far the world is progressing towards meeting the goals set out under the Paris Agreement of 2015. But the “stocktake” itself will be largely representative of documents drafted by consensus — it will not take a strong position, in particular, on the ongoing utility of those targets in the first place.

The Emissions Gap Report, on the other hand, makes the important point that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is still going to overshoot the amount required to keep average temperature rises below two degrees Celsius. In particular, the report notes that “to get to levels consistent with least-cost pathways limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and 1.5 degrees Celsius, global GHG emissions must be reduced by 28 per cent and 42 per cent, respectively”. The system agreed upon in Paris was that each country takes on nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the global mitigation effort. These are entirely voluntary, so the Paris Agreement is simply an agreement and not a treaty. In most cases, therefore, the NDCs significantly underplay both what is achievable and what is necessary. The point of the global “stocktake” is to inform the next iteration of these NDCs, which countries are expected to submit in 2025. The hope is that revelations about how every country is performing when it comes to emission mitigation as well as an understanding of how much remains to be done will cause an increase in ambition all round.

The Emissions Gap Report might serve, however, as more of a wake-up call than the global “stocktake”. It makes it very clear that NDCs without being updated would, under the most likely scenarios, open up a gap by 2035 in emissions between actual and desired levels that would be mathematically impossible to bridge. The crucial years, therefore, are between now and 2030. If existing NDCs are improved and then met — in other words, if countries overperform their current agreed-on targets for mitigation — only then will the world continue to have the chance to limit temperature rises to below levels, exceeding which might be catastrophic.

The most important outcome from this COP, therefore, would be for countries to appreciate and understand the significance of more ambitious near-term targets. Much else might be discussed, including the structure of financing for loss and damage caused by the GHG already in the atmosphere. But, in the end, the core business of the COP is for countries to agree on how catastrophic climate change can be averted. And this core business requires them to improve their act when it comes to emission control. India has low emission per capita, under half the global average, while Russia and the United States are at double the global average. The European Union, by contrast, is below the global average. But the fact is also that a large amount of future emission will unquestionably come from India. The path of such emission will determine the fate of global warming. India must continue to commit to decreasing the carbon intensity of its economy as it grows, and search for swift but sustainable and green development solutions.