What is the road ahead for India as fresh Covid-19 cases dip below 1,000

Over two years ago, on January 30, 2020, as the winter was slowly giving way to spring, a news from Kerala sent the chills down the spine.

Covid-19 infection had finally arrived. A student who had just returned from Wuhan University in China had tested positive for the virus. It was two months after the virus had surfaced in China. By January 30, China had reported 130 deaths. And WHO was yet to declare it a global health emergency.

For everyone -- including the scientists and health experts-- the first wave was like a journey into the dark.

As the virus spread its tentacles, Kerala announced a lockdown on March 23, 2020.

The nationwide lockdown came on March 25. A country of 1.4 billion people came to standstill. But, it didn’t stop the march of the virus.

According to government data, the first wave spurred a rise in fatalities around June, 2020. And the peak daily deaths went past 1,000 in September. Vaccines were not available by then, and the virus claimed over 1.55 lakh lives in the country in the next few days.

Vaccination in India began from January 16, 2021. And by February 2021, daily cases had fallen to 9,000 per-day.

But the worst was yet to come. The second wave, which started somewhere in the mid of April 2021, soon took the country in its grip. Hospitals ran out of oxygen and patients of hope.

According to the government data, at least 3.24 lakh people lost their lives-- a figure which many believe was an undercount. 

But, the third wave has been the most forgiving, with over 11,000 deaths. And most of them were unvaccinated. The combined death toll due to the Covid-19 is 5.16 lakhs as on April 4, 2022.

The economic consequences of the pandemic were no less devastating. The Indian economy contracted by 7.3% in the April-June quarter of fiscal year 2021 -- the worst decline ever observed since the government started compiling GDP stats quarterly in 1996.

The informal sector of the economy was the worst hit as millions of migrant workers returned home. Almost all the sectors were in crisis, as domestic demand and exports sharply plummeted.

Two years on, the country and its economy are limping back to normalcy. Fresh Covid-19 numbers have hit a low of 913 cases. At 12,597, the active caseload is also the lowest in almost two years.

The WHO has also said that the “acute phase” of the pandemic could end by the middle of this year. But for that around 70% of the world has to be vaccinated.

India, on its part, has set a record of sorts. Over 84% of India’s 94.47 crore of estimated adult population is fully vaccinated now. While more than 92% have got a single shot.

It has also relieved the vaccine makers, who had ramped up the production on a short notice and churned out crores of doses, potentially saving millions of lives. Now they can divert resources to make other vaccines also.

Economic activities are back to pre-Covid days. International flights have resumed and the tourism industry is bouncing back.

But can we lower our guard? Clearly not.

Fresh cases of a fresh variant are spreading in parts of the world. In China, thousands of army men and health workers were rushed to contain the virus in Shanghai last week. Fresh spurt in cases was reported in some European countries too.

Meanwhile, as the immunity obtained from vaccines or infections wane, people, especially the vulnerable section, will need booster shots. India has so far approved nine vaccines.

Several developed countries either have started or are weighing the option to administer booster shots. The US has expanded eligibility for booster shots to all fully vaccinated adults. In India, the booster shots are only being administered to elderly and frontline workers. Experts suggest that it should be extended to all before another wave strikes. An IIT study suggests that the fourth Covid wave may hit the country in June. 

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