Will vaccine crunch hurt India's ongoing fight against Covid-19?

The threat of a fresh Covid-19 variant is looming large and half of the country’s population is yet to be fully vaccinated. Adding to the woes, Pune-based Serum Institute of India has now announced that it will reduce the production of the Oxford-Astra­Ze­neca vaccine, marketed as Covishield in India, by at least 50 per cent from next week. The vaccine maker says that it does not have fresh orders from the Indian government. And if we factor in the possibility of a booster dose, then the vaccine shortfall could only increase. Let us see how much stock we are left with and what is the road ahead. 

Serum CEO Adar Poonawalla said that the company has about 500 million doses of Covishield left in stock. And half of it is in an unfinished state. Poonawalla said SII will start exporting the available stock if the Indian government doesn’t need the supply.

And on Tuesday, the government told the Parliament that 227.6 million doses were available with the states as on December 1, 2021.

A Business Standard analysis shows that the government, on December 1, did not have enough doses to administer a second jab to people who have not been fully vaccinated and vaccinate the remaining unvaccinated individuals. Of the 36 states and UTs for which data is available, only 11 states had enough doses to cover their partially vaccinated population with a second dose and the unvaccinated people with first doses.

Uttar Pradesh, for instance, had a shortfall of 67.7 million doses, while Maharashtra and Bihar were short of over 25 million doses each, as on December 1, 2021. Tamil Nadu and West Bengal were short of nearly 20 million doses during the period.

Serum Institute of India’s 500 million doses of Covishield -- if they have been prioritised for the Indian government--plus the stock of Covaxin with Bharat Biotech, should be enough to fulfill India’s vaccination requirements for the adult population. 

However, if India goes for an additional dose for the fully vaccinated population or a booster dose, then there might be a shortfall.

This shortfall in vaccines is particularly telling when we still don’t know how the Omicron variant of coronavirus will act up. Medical experts and epidemiologists have warned that Covid-19 will become endemic and people will require annual booster shots.

And India is yet to take a final call on vaccinating children. Given all these uncertainties, the country cannot afford disruption in supply of vaccines.

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