Market Ahead, February 17: Top factors that could guide markets this week

The extent of the spread of the coronavirus will remain the key focus for investors in the truncated trading week ahead. Markets will remain closed on Friday for Mahashivratri. Within China, authorities reported 2,009 new cases on Sunday, taking the total to 68,500, with 1,665 deaths. Outside China, more than 500 cases have been confirmed.

Investors will also watch with keen interest the developments on the AGR front. According to report, telecom operators Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea and Tata Teleservices are likely to make payment for the adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues today. The three companies are jointly liable to pay dues of over Rs 1 trillion, but they have informed the Department of Telecom (DoT) of making only partial payment.

Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India will release the minutes of its last Monetary Policy Committee meeting this week. Investors will go through the details and commentary by the members of the committee for any hint on the road ahead in terms of rate cuts and other measures.

Market participants will also track US President Donald Trump's India visit later this month for any favourable announcement that might bring sector-specific cheers. They will also keep an eye on crude oil prices, the Rupee's trajectory, and foreign fund flow.

Globally, Asian shares stepped back from three-week highs on Monday. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.1 per cent. Australian shares and South Korea’s KOSPI index were each down 0.3 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei fell more than 1 per cent.

In commodities, oil prices edged lower on Monday with the brent crude slipping 33 cents to $56.99 a barrel.

In the week gone by, the BSE Sensex closed 0.28 per cent higher at 41,258 level, while the broader Nifty50 rose 0.12 per cent to settle at 12,113. Analysts say that the Nifty is witnessing stiff resistance in sub-12,250 zones. Traders should try and create short position at any higher levels as 12,200 which will act as stiff resistance level while 12,000 will act as support. However, if Nifty is able to breach 12,200, it can lead to short covering move up to 12,300.

And, in the end, here's a stock call by CapitalVia Global Research which recommends buying Tata Global Beverages Limited above Rs 400.50 for the target of Rs 425 with stop-loss at Rs 385.