TMS Ep410: Monsoon forecast, Ahmedabad, paint stocks, China-Taiwan conflict

Not only farmers, senior officials sitting in RBI headquarters too hold their breath when weathermen come out with monsoon predictions in April. Relationship between rain and key economic indicators is well established. So last week, when private weather forecaster Skymet painted a grim picture of the monsoon, shares of HUL, Nestle and Tata Consumers tumbled. But soon, India’s official weather forecaster, IMD, too came out with its prediction, saying the monsoon will be normal. So what does this forecast mean for the country’s economy? 

Most experts, meanwhile, agree that Q4 will end on a good note. A good monsoon played a key role in it. And another round of good monsoon will pave the way for another impressive earning season. Speaking of the private sector, the country has seen several urban centres metamorphose into the favoured destination for companies over the years. Like Bengaluru and NCR. Ahmedabad seems to be the latest in the line. From industrial giants to start-ups, all are rushing to establish a base in the city. So is Gujarat's financial capital emerging as the next corporate hub of India? 

Erratic crude oil prices too affect the margins of companies just like the monsoon. Paint companies are eyeing margin recovery from Q4 onwards after being beaten down for several months, but volatility in crude has returned to haunt them. So is it time to buy stocks of paint companies? 

Global crude oil prices had soared to 120 dollars a barrel last year when Russia invaded Ukraine. A somewhat similar situation seems to be building up in the Pacific Ocean now. China recently concluded a three-day military exercise around Taiwan. There were simulated attacks on Taiwan, the encirclement of the island and its “sealing off”. This is not the first time tensions between the two nations have escalated. There is a long history to it. Listen to this episode of the podcast to know more.