Ahead of Cabinet reshuffle, a look at Modi govt's past ministerial rejigs

With 3 Hindi heartland states due for elections this year, PM may revamp key ministries and also repatriate ministers to the party to prepare for 2024

In 2019, Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) smaller allies won 49, or 14 per cent, of the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA’s) 352 seats. Four years on, only three of these allies are part of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led 75-member Union Council of Ministers.

The keenly awaited reshuffle of the ministerial council could mark the return of the BJP's estranged allies. The Prime Minister could also induct MPs from new partners, such as the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), with the BJP trying to consolidate its presence in Maharashtra and Bihar for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

With three Hindi heartland states due for Assembly polls by December, the PM could revamp the leadership in key ministries, such as agriculture and farmers' welfare, and repatriate ministers to the party to prepare the organisation for 2024 – given that the BJP has lost the state elections in Himachal Pradesh, party chief J P Nadda's home state, and Karnataka since December 2022.

In a meeting of the Council of Ministers earlier this month, Modi stressed frontloading capital expenditure by December, which could mean fine-tuning ministries and departments dealing with infrastructure. Since the Prime Minister left for a three-day visit to France and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Thursday and the monsoon session of Parliament begins on July 20, there is only a three-day window early next week for the Cabinet reshuffle.

During the first term of the Modi government, a 45-member Council of Ministers, led by the Prime Minister, had taken oath on May 26, 2014. In the first term, the PM rejigged it thrice – on November 9, 2014; July 5, 2016; and September 3, 2017. The most significant of these was the last reshuffle, when the PM promoted Piyush Goyal, Dharmendra Pradhan and Nirmala Sitharaman to Cabinet rank and inducted former bureaucrats Hardeep Singh Puri, R K Singh, Satya Pal Singh and K J Alphons.

In the second term, the PM expanded his council only once, two years ago, on July 7, 2021, effecting the biggest reshuffle since 2014 – increasing its strength from 54 to 78 and axing a dozen ministers. With the crucial Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls of 2022 ten months away, the reshuffle saw Modi induct MPs that belonged to Scheduled Castes and Other Backward Class (OBC) communities.

The reshuffle also marked the splitting of the Department of Cooperation, which belonged to the agriculture ministry, as an independent one under the charge of the home minister. And, the Department of Public Enterprises (DPE) was shifted from the ministry of heavy industries to the finance ministry.

The forthcoming reshuffle could accommodate Chirag Paswan, a Lok Sabha member and son of former Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan, who heads a Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) faction. Currently, his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras, who leads the other faction of the LJP, Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal (Soneylal) and Ramdas Athawale of the Republican Party of India (A) are the three ministers representing the larger NDA.

The PM will likely induct NCP Rajya Sabha member Praful Patel and one from Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. The leaders of the BJP's estranged allies, such as the Shiromani Akali Dal and Telugu Desam Party, have also reached out.

The current 75-member Council of Ministers has 11 women. Uttar Pradesh leads with 14 ministers, followed by nine from Maharashtra, seven each from Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, six from Karnataka, five from Bihar and four from Rajasthan.

Only 15 of the 45 ministers who took oath on May 26, 2014, survive in the current Council of Ministers. These include Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari, Nirmala Sitharaman, Piyush Goyal, Dharmendra Pradhan and Smriti Irani. Others from the original lot are V K Singh, Narendra Singh Tomar, Rao Inderjit Singh, Shripad Yesso Naik, Jitendra Singh, Kiren Rijiju, Krishan Pal, Sanjeev Balyan and Raosaheb Danve.

Council at a glance

The Council of Ministers cannot exceed 15% of Lok Sabha’s strength or cross 82

Current Union Council of Ministers, including the PM, has 76 members

For the reshuffle, the PM could look at repatriating ministers to the party as reinforcements to prepare for forthcoming electoral battles

There is the likelihood of BJP’s estranged and new allies, such as the NCP, finding representation, increasing their numbers from a mere three

The PM could revamp key ministries for better delivery of govt schemes and implementation of projects

In Modi govt’s first term, a 45-member Council of Ministers took oath on May 26, 2014. The PM rejigged it thrice – on November 9, 2014; July 5, 2016; and September 3, 2017

In the second term, the PM expanded his council only once, on July 7, 2021, effecting the biggest reshuffle since 2014 – increasing its strength from 54 to 78 and axing a dozen ministers

The current 75-member Council of Ministers has 11 women

Uttar Pradesh leads with 14 ministers, followed by nine from Maharashtra, seven each from Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, six from Karnataka, five from Bihar and four from Rajasthan

Only 15 of the 45 ministers who took oath on May 26, 2014, survive in the current Council of Ministers