BJP, Congress court party rebels to avoid upsets in Assembly polls

Rivals wary of those denied tickets as past elections serve reminder of the damage caused by Independents and smaller parties

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress have reached out to rebels to foil possible attempts to upset their apple cart in the upcoming Assembly elections.

Concerned that party rebels could dent its performance in the Hindi heartland states, as they did in the Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls in December 2022, the BJP leadership has in recent days touched base with aspirants whom it has denied tickets. Such workers have now either joined smaller parties to contest elections or announced that they would fight as Independents.

The Congress, aware of how party rebels contesting as Independents in the Rajasthan Assembly polls in 2018 hurt the prospects of its official candidates in over two dozen seats, has launched a similar exercise in the election-bound states, including Telangana. In Madhya Pradesh, for example, in a post on X on October 17, former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijaya Singh “appealed” to aspirants who were denied tickets to exercise patience and help form a Congress government in the state. Singh indicated that those denied tickets would be accommodated if the Congress came to power in MP.

In Himachal last year, when the BJP lost by less than a percentage of vote share to the Congress — it received 43 per cent to the rival party’s 43.9 per cent — an estimated 28 of the 99 Independents in the fray for the 68-member Assembly were rebels.

All three Independents who won were BJP dissidents. Independents collectively bagged 9.7 per cent of the votes polled compared to 112; they had a 6.34 per cent vote share in the 2017 Assembly polls in the state.

In Rajasthan in 2018, as many as 13 Independents won. A majority were Congress rebels, who halted the party’s tally at a precarious 99 seats in the 200-member Assembly. A couple of months later, 12 of the Independent legislators joined the Congress.

Data from the 2018 Assembly elections in these states shows that Independents and smaller parties accounted for a fifth of the votes polled. In Chhattisgarh, Independents and smaller parties polled nearly 24 per cent votes. In MP, they secured 18.09 per cent and Rajasthan 22 per cent (see chart).

The role of rebels and smaller parties becomes crucial in close fights. This was evident in Madhya Pradesh in 2018, as the BJP secured fractionally a better vote share but the Congress emerged as the single largest party. Five years later, the BJP has dropped 32 sitting legislators. In MP, during his visit to the state over the weekend, Union Home Minister Amit Shah met disgruntled BJP leaders, who did not get tickets, and persuaded several of them not to contest as Independents.

In Chhattisgarh, where the Congress has dropped 22 sitting legislators, at least a dozen rebel aspirants are part of the list of the Amit Jogi-led Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (J) (JCCJ).

In Rajasthan, the Congress is preparing to reject at least a third of its sitting legislators as its internal survey has suggested significant anti-incumbency. But it is wary of rebels joining smaller parties or contesting as Independents. In 2018, as many as 38 seats were decided by margins of less than 5,000 votes, including nine where the difference was less than thousand votes.

Apart from Independents, several smaller parties could also hurt the prospects of the BJP and Congress, the principal opponents of the three Hindi heartland states.

In Chhattisgarh, the prominent ones include Gondwana Gantantra Party, JCCJ and Hamar Raj Party. In Rajasthan, Hanuman Beniwal-led Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and Bharatiya Tribal Party are in the fray and influential in certain pockets. The Bahujan Samaj Party has a significant presence in parts of these states, while the Aam Aadmi Party has fielded candidates, too.

While these “others” garnered a significant vote share in the December 2018 Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, the Lok Sabha elections five months later saw the BJP not only eating into the Congress vote share in these states but also that of Independents and smaller parties. The BJP’s vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls increased by nearly 20 per cent in these three states compared to its Assembly performance. In Chhattisgarh, for example, the BJP increased its vote share to 50.7 per cent and Congress saw a dip of two per cent to 41, but that of the “others” was a third of the 24 per cent they received in December 2018.