Indian diaspora influence in US policy, politics rising: Milan Vaishnaw

Says from majoritarianism and caste divides to concerns about democracy and inequality, the Indian American scene is much more cacophonous now

Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia programme at the Carnegie Endowment and a keen India watcher, tells Aditi Phadnis in New Delhi that amid new challenges, the Indian diaspora is emerging as a new and influential force in shaping United States (US) policy towards India. Edited excerpts:

 

The Israeli diaspora in the US has had a significant influence on the US’s foreign policy. The Chinese diaspora in the US played a crucial role in the economic rise of China in the 1990s by investing in China and then lobbying for a trade policy that would make the US China’s most important market. How is the Indian diaspora in the US placed, in terms of reach and influence? Are we there yet?

 

The Indian American diaspora is growing in leaps and bounds, both demographically as well in terms of its influence, but it remains a work in progress. It has not achieved its full potential, and there are at least two reasons for this.

 

Which are?

 

First, with any immigrant community, the first generation of new arrivals typically steers clear from politics and policy because its members are preoccupied with establishing themselves, integrating into society, rearing families, and building careers.

 

Second, it is worth remembering that the Indian diaspora in the US is very new, in comparative terms. Seventy per cent of Indian immigrants to the US arrived in the year 2000 or after. This number puts in stark relief just how new the vast majority of Indian immigrants are.

 

Having said that, it is the children of those who arrived after the loosening of America’s immigration restrictions after 1965 who are now coming of age and getting more involved in politics and policy. Most of the prominent Indian Americans we see in the world of politics, for instance, come from this cohort. We are soon arriving at the stage where the third generation is approaching adulthood, and I expect we will see a huge rise in the community’s involvement in politics and policy as a result.

 

The profile of the Indian diaspora in the US is changing. What changes do you see? What is the trajectory for the diaspora in the future?

 

There are many aspects to this. First, as social mobility has increased in India — with the breakdown of existing social hierarchies, the expansion of educational opportunities, and rising incomes — the diversity of Indian Americans has increased in kind. Thanks to the technology boom post-2000, we are seeing more regional variation, with much greater rates of immigration from the southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Given these states’ own histories and social characteristics, we are seeing greater diversity in terms of caste, for instance.

 

Second, the share of Indian Americans under the age of 18 is growing rapidly thanks to the fact that there has been a huge surge in migration in the last quarter-century, resulting in a bulge in the younger cohort. Increasing diversity in the diaspora means, quite naturally, an increase in the diversity of viewpoints.

 

This could also mean that a review of US-India ties would have to take this diversity into account?

 

There was a general sense, over the past few decades, that the Indian American community was rowing in the same direction — that is, toward strengthening and deepening US-India ties. But there are a great number of voices now who question this narrative or have concerns about how the bilateral relationship has evolved. From majoritarianism and caste divides to concerns about democracy and inequality, the Indian American scene is much more cacophonous now. And both sides, the US and India, will have to get used to that. It’s the new normal.

 

In an America that has voted for Trump and his policies on immigration, race issues, and trade, how do you see the diaspora reacting?

 

This is a tricky question because the views of the diaspora are evolving. According to the data Sumitra Badrinathan, Devesh Kapur, and I have collected, we estimate that in 2020 roughly 70 per cent Indian Americans voted for Joe Biden and 20 per cent backed Donald Trump. Four years later, in 2024, the Democrats’ 70-20 margin shrank to 60-30 in the presidential polls. This suggests that while the Democrats still retain a significant edge with the Indian Americans, there has been a significant increase in their willingness to give Trump a second term. Our survey suggests that, this election year, the Indian Americans were concerned about inflation, jobs, and illegal immigration — the very issues that Trump campaigned on. However, things could quickly get more complicated once Trump steps into office. If he decides to slap across-the-board tariffs on imported goods, this could have a detrimental impact on India and Indian exporters. That will produce an irritant in the bilateral relationship.

 

There is also a very good chance that Trump moves to curb legal as well as illegal migration. The Indian Americans have been massive beneficiaries of America’s skill-based legal visa regime. This has the possibility of provoking a backlash from the diaspora.

 

Even on issues of science and the climate, where the Indian Americans are more in step with the Democrats, they might find Trump’s positions to be off-putting. Having said that, the economy will remain the number one issue and is likely to be the biggest factor in shaping political behaviour. At the end of the day, the Indian Americans vote as all Americans do; they are driven primarily by “kitchen table” issues.

 

Courting the diaspora makes for good politics back home in India. But there are significant numbers among the diaspora that have a different idea of India. How does that work in American politics?

 

We are already seeing some of those tensions play out. On caste, for instance, there have been moves in certain states, towns, and college campuses to add one’s caste identity to the list of protected categories under anti-discrimination law or regulation. Some attempts have succeeded while others have failed but the issue is not going away. This is a divisive issue in some diaspora communities and can be a lightning rod in India.

 

The survey data we collected in 2020 suggests that younger Indian Americans, especially those born in the US, as well as religious minorities are quite concerned about the trajectory of India’s democracy. Groups representing these interests have elevated these issues with their members of Congress and we see that, interestingly, on both the progressive Left as well as the conservative Right (albeit quite often for different reasons).

 

However, there is a mainstream consensus — shared by both the Democrats and Republicans — that the US should continue building stronger links with India. These links have an economic, strategic, and often deeply personal logic. Again, we can expect more statements from members of Congress, more questions being raised about “shared values”, more dissonance with the diaspora more generally, but at the end of the day all these things too are part of the so-called democratic spirit. I don’t think the critiques of the current “idea of India” have risen to a level where the bipartisan consensus on India has come under any real threat.