All of Rajasthan is abuzz with excitement over a red diary. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned it during his recent public meeting at Sikar. The question arises: who and what is behind this red diary?
Rajendra Singh Gudha, a Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Udaipurwati, is part of the Jhunjhunu Lok Sabha (LS) seat. He was initially elected as an MLA from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2008.
In 2009, he orchestrated a coup of sorts by moving all five BSP MLAs, who had won in the previous Assembly election, to the Congress. As a reward, he was made a minister by Chief Minister (CM) Ashok Gehlot. However, when the Congress, along with Gudha, lost the Assembly elections in 2013, he returned to the BSP and secured the BSP ticket for the same Assembly seat in 2018. After winning the Udaipurwati seat, he once again rejoined the Congress and became a minister with portfolios related to Sainik Kalyan (soldier welfare) and other areas, all the while patting himself on the back for his political astuteness.
Tongues started wagging last year when Gudha — a ‘self-proclaimed’ Gehlot loyalist-turned-critic — openly cast his lot with the Sachin Pilot faction of the Congress and publicly criticised Gehlot’s conduct. The tipping point came when he stated in the Assembly that instead of focusing on the wrongs done to women in Manipur, the CM should have addressed the atrocities against the women of Rajasthan.
Gehlot, who had been ignoring Gudha’s visits to Delhi on behalf of Pilot, finally took action and dismissed him from the government while also filing several criminal cases against him. As he was leaving, Gudha claimed to possess a red diary that allegedly contains records of illegal transactions by the Gehlot-led government. With no likelihood of receiving a ticket from the Congress in the upcoming elections and the Congress high command directing Pilot to reconcile with Gehlot, Gudha finds himself falling between two stools. Jhunjhunu, like many other constituencies in India, represents a paradox. Per square metre, more individuals from this region have created wealth for India than most other towns.
Several prominent business families hail from there, including the Bajajs, Birlas, Dalmias, Goenkas, Piramals, Poddars, and the Singhanias, along with Lakshmi Niwas Mittal.
However, despite this economic prowess, the three towns of Shekhawati — Jhunjhunu, Sikar, and Churu — continue to face developmental challenges and have a strong militant Jat population that spearheaded a Communist uprising, with figures like Amra Ram, a Communist legend, emerging from this region.
In contrast, Gudha has not aligned himself with any specific ideology and would readily join the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) if invited. But he has received no invitation so far. In the LS election, the BJP’s Narendra Kumar polled 56 per cent of the vote share, the highest ever for any party. For years, the doughty Sis Ram Ola held the seat for the Congress. Gudha managed to win his Assembly seat by a margin of around 7,000 votes, which is not insignificant, but local political analysts suggest he shouldn’t be too complacent.
Unsurprisingly, the BJP sees this seat as ripe for the picking when the Assembly elections come around. Of course, there are lots of ifs and buts.
While the Congress government’s welfare schemes have reportedly imbued with even the most marginalised sections of voters, there are uncertainties.
Rajasthan’s history of revolving-door politics has almost never failed to bring the Opposition to power.
However, not everyone is convinced that this pattern will hold true this time.
The Congress party is optimistic about its chances, with party General Secretary K C Venugopal stating, “We are very sure that the Congress party will win in Rajasthan. The candidates’ selection will be based on their winnability. We are conducting several surveys to ascertain that, and the party candidates will be decided in the first week of September.”
Could Gudha have bitten off more than he could chew this time? It’s hard to say. However, the battle for the Udaipurwati seat will undoubtedly be fierce. Gudha has delivered the first blow. Now it is for others to respond.