Can Naveen Patnaik's BJD make a comeback in Odisha? It's a tricky course

With a 40.22% vote share in Assembly polls, it remains Odisha's preeminent party but is untested in the Opposition space

The camaraderie between Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief Naveen Patnaik and Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in focus last week at the swearing-in of Mohan Charan Majhi, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) first chief minister in Odisha, amid swirling questions over the regional party’s future following its recent electoral defeat.

Until just a fortnight ago, these two parties — once allies — were engaged in their fiercest battle yet, with Modi hinting at conspiracies surrounding the 77-year-old Patnaik’s health during public rallies. The victory of the BJP, which secured 78 seats in the 147-member Assembly, thwarted Patnaik’s bid to become the longest-serving CM.

The BJD won 51 seats in the Assembly, but lost all 21 Lok Sabha constituencies — a first in its political history — in the simultaneous elections.

Political observers attribute the BJD’s defeat to anti-incumbency and the rising influence of Tamil Nadu-born V K Pandian, Patnaik’s private secretary for over a decade before joining the BJD. The BJP capitalised on emotive issues of Odia pride and the controversy over the “missing” keys of the Jagannatha temple’s Ratna Bhandar.

“Over the past some years, no political representative was allowed to go up to the stage and give a speech. This sent the wrong message to party workers. Had Patnaik not allowed this, Pandian couldn’t have done the damage,” said Tathagata Satpathy, former BJD member of Parliament (MP) and editor of two dailies published in Odisha.

Following Biju Patnaik’s death in 1997, some Janata Dal legislators considered joining the BJP but feared losing their membership under the anti-defection law. This led to the formation of the BJD, helped by the late BJP leader Pramod Mahajan, who sought to leverage Biju’s popularity to strengthen his party’s base in Odisha and oust the then Congress government, said Congress leader Panchanan Kanungo, who was with the Janata Dal at the time.

Since then, the BJP has ridden its largely cordial ties with the BJD to grow in the state — from nine seats in the 1995 Assembly elections to 39 in the first election in an alliance in 2000, and now with the formation of its own government. The BJP opened its Lok Sabha account in Odisha with nine seats in 1998, surging to 20 in 2024. However, the party’s seat tally fell after the alliance broke in 2009 following the Kandhamal riots.

Despite claiming to remain equidistant from both National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Congress-led bloc, the BJD supported almost all BJP-led government’s Bills in Parliament, including the controversial Delhi Services Bill that deals with the principles of a federal democracy.   

“For the past five-six years, the party lost its course and focused on individual leadership. I did not understand what the BJD hoped to gain from supporting the BJP,” said Satpathy, citing neighbouring West Bengal where Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress limited the BJP.

In the run-up to the 2024 elections, as re-alliance talks were underway, Pandian had described the Patnaik-Modi friendship as “a mark of great statesmanship”. “Patnaik thought he could overcome anti-incumbency with the alliance’s help, but it didn’t materialise,” said senior journalist Rabi Das.

Despite internal factions, the BJP has strategic long-term plans for Odisha, evident from its ministerial selections. The new CM, a vocal tribal leader, has risen through the ranks, serving as a sarpanch. “Apart from balancing regional dynamics, Majhi’s ministerial team includes MLAs from Scheduled Tribes and Scheduled Castes, which represent 40 per cent of the state’s population,” Das said.

Kanungo argued that the BJD cannot be written off, given the influence of regional parties in the current Indian political scenario. Though the BJD’s vote share dropped from 45.2 per cent in the 2019 Assembly elections to 40.22 per cent now, it is still higher than the BJP’s 40.07 per cent.

In neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party’s Chandrababu Naidu stormed back to power five years after being decimated by then newcomer Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party. The BJD has weathered three major storms in the past: Averting a coup attempt by former aide Pyarimohan Mohapatra in 2012, dodging the Modi upsurge in the 2014 elections, and remaining largely unscathed in the pro-BJP wave following the 2019 Pulwama attack.

However, the current situation is different. The BJD is out of power, and most of its senior leaders since 1997 have either been suspended from the party or joined the BJP. “It will be quite a task for the BJD to adapt to its new role in the Opposition,” said senior journalist and columnist Sandeep Sahu.

Ruben Banerjee, veteran journalist and author of a biography of Patnaik, said: “The immediate challenge for the ageing Patnaik is to keep the flock together as the BJD runs the risk of poaching by the BJP.”

Satpathy suggested that the possibility of MLAs crossing over to the BJP wouldn’t affect Odisha politics significantly, predicting the emergence of another regional party in the state. His argument is backed by the fact that regional parties have ruled Odisha for more than 35 years since Independence.

Following the poll debacle, Patnaik has been meeting with party leaders. Pandian has announced his departure from “active politics,” and Patnaik has stated that blaming the bureaucrat-turned-BJD leader for the loss is unfortunate. He clarified that Pandian is not his political successor, leaving that decision to the people of Odisha. However, the presence of his nephew Arun Patnaik at Naveen Niwas days after the election results has sparked rumours.

Satpathy noted that bringing in another family member is unlikely to benefit the BJD. “Transformation will happen. If the BJD cooperates, it will be part of it; otherwise, it will be left behind.”

Sahu partly agreed: “The BJD will reinvent itself in another form. One cannot bypass the BJD’s support base.”

For now, the BJD’s stance in the Rajya Sabha, where the support of its nine members will be crucial given the changing dynamics after the elections, and its pick for the leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, will play a decisive role in the party’s future, said Sahu.