 "PM Modi's popularity slips, but the BJP leader still towers over his rivals")
It has been two months since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections results were announced. While the elections saw a revival of opposition parties, mainly the Congress, the political bazaar has been rife with many developments, with the Opposition cornering the government in the Parliament on several issues. It all has taken a slight toll on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity.
So, what if the elections were to be held today?
According to an India Today’s Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey, the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) position would remain largely unchanged, but the Congress is projected to surpass the 100-seat threshold.
Congress would significantly improve its seat-share
Three months into the Modi 3.0 government, the survey indicated that the BJP-led NDA would slightly increase its tally by six seats, bringing it to 299 if the Lok Sabha polls were conducted now. Meanwhile, the opposition’s INDIA bloc would see a marginal decrease, losing one seat to stand at 233.
The August 2024 MOTN survey suggests that the BJP would gain four seats compared to its June tally, reaching a total of 244 seats, accompanied by a slight increase in its vote share. Although the BJP's vote share fell from 37.7 per cent to 36.56 per cent in the general elections, the survey estimated it at 38 per cent. Overall, the NDA is projected to secure 43.7 per cent of the votes.
For the Congress, which has seen a revival in its electoral fortunes, the survey predicted a significant improvement, with the party expected to win 106 seats if elections were held today. This is a substantial increase from its dismal performance in 2014, where it secured only 44 seats, and an improvement from the 52 seats it won in 2019. The party's vote share is also anticipated to rise to 25.4 per cent, compared to the 21.2 per cent it garnered in the last elections.
Dip in approval rating of PM Modi
The survey highlighted a decline in Prime Minister Modi's approval ratings. While his performance is still rated positively by the majority, his popularity has decreased from its peak in August 2020, when 78 per cent of respondents rated his performance as good. As of August 2024, this figure has dropped to 59 per cent, with 22 per cent now viewing his performance unfavourably.
One notable insight from the survey is the narrowing gap in approval ratings between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi as the preferred candidate for the next prime minister. While Modi remains the dominant choice, with 49 per cent of respondents supporting him, Rahul Gandhi's popularity has grown to 22.4 per cent, reflecting a six-point decline for Modi and an eight-point rise for Gandhi since the February 2024 survey.
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The survey, conducted by CVoter from July 15 to August 10, 2024, involved 40,591 respondents across all 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. An additional 95,872 interviews from CVoter's regular weekly tracker were also analysed to assess long-term trends in voter preferences.
Who would be Narendra Modi’s successor?
The survey further explored the question of who might succeed Narendra Modi as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate. Amit Shah emerged as the top choice, with over 25 per cent of respondents backing him, followed by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath with around 19 per cent support. Nitin Gadkari, the Road Transport and Highways Minister, was the third most favoured candidate, with 13 per cent of the votes. However, Amit Shah's approval rating has declined from previous surveys, dropping from 29 per cent in August 2023 to 25 per cent in August 2024.
Regionally, Amit Shah received the highest approval rating in South India, with 31 per cent of respondents viewing him as the best candidate to succeed Modi, compared to 25 per cent support nationwide. Yogi Adityanath's popularity has also declined, with his support decreasing from 25 per cent in August 2023 to 19 per cent in the latest survey.
Predictions for Haryana Assembly elections
In Haryana, the Congress is projected to gain an advantage over the BJP, winning six of the state's 10 Lok Sabha seats, according to the MOTN survey. This would represent a shift from the recent general elections, where both parties secured five seats each.
However, as with all surveys, this one too must be taken with a pinch of salt and mainly as a means to keep the conversations going.