The perks of being equidistant on political axis for regional parties

With Telangana going to polls in December, and Assembly and LS elections in Andhra and Odisha scheduled next year, what factors have influenced parties' recent moves in Parliament?

In 2018, when the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) from Andhra Pradesh unsuccessfully moved a no-confidence motion against the Narendra Modi government over the delay in granting special category status to the state, the neighbouring Odisha’s ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) staged a walkout, claiming that the four years of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government were as bad as the previous Congress-led regime.

Fast forward to 2023, and the TDP, its rival and the ruling party in the southern state, the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), and the BJD have not only opposed the no-confidence motion moved by the INDIA bloc but have also favoured the controversial Delhi Services Bill, indicating a departure from the equidistance stance they claimed to maintain.

While the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana continues to remain “equidistant”, the other parties have readily supported the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) causes when needed.

This is significant as they together hold 50 of the 63 Lok Sabha (LS) seats in the three states. With Telangana going to polls in December, and Assembly and LS elections in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha scheduled simultaneously next year, what factors influenced these regional parties’ recent moves in Parliament?

BJD’s change of heart?

A couple of days after the BJD helped the Centre clear the Delhi Services Bill in the LS on August 3, Home Minister Amit Shah flew to Odisha to lay the foundation stone for a highway project, alongside Chief Minister (CM) Naveen Patnaik. Shah did not miss the opportunity to praise Patnaik for his “constructive cooperation in upholding cooperative federalism”. Political pundits saw Shah’s visit as a thanksgiving gesture towards the BJD.

Making the party’s stand clear in not supporting the no-trust vote, BJD leader Pinaki Misra said his party was “grateful” to the Centre for fulfilling the “just demands”, such as mineral royalty revision, removal of export tax on iron ore and manganese, an international airport in Puri, and the Jagannath Puri Heritage Corridor.

Interestingly, until now, the BJD had maintained that Odisha was not getting adequate support from the Centre.

Shah told BJP leaders during his visit that the Modi government sanctioned Rs 18.83 trillion as grants to the state, against Rs 2.93 trillion during the Congress regime.

Is the greater central assistance reason enough for the BJD’s change of heart?

Rivalry plays out in Andhra

The Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP snapped ties with the NDA a year before the 2019 elections over “injustice” meted out to Andhra Pradesh. However, riding on the anti-incumbency and “indirect help by the BJP”, the Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP formed the government with 151 Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) in the 175-member Assembly. The YSRCP repeated its Assembly success in the LS polls by securing 22 of the 25 seats, leaving the TDP with only three.

The TDP is seeking the BJP’s support through Jana Sena Party chief Pawan Kalyan to prevent the Jagan government’s return, but despite Naidu’s meetings with the Prime Minister and Shah, the BJP is yet to allow its return to the NDA.

The YSRCP is not inclined to join the Congress-led alliance, given its not-so-positive experience in the past.

Speaking against the no-trust motion, YSRCP member P V Midhun Reddy argued his party did not want to engage in the “tussle between two alliances”.

Political commentator Purushottam Reddy says the YSRCP’s strategy was to support the Centre and secure maximum benefits for the state.

The Centre sanctioned Rs 10,460 crore in May, the highest for Andhra Pradesh since the bifurcation. In June, it released Rs 12,911 crore for the Polavaram project.

The developments hinting at the YSRCP’s pro-NDA stand might excite the BJP, which is trying to enter the state, observe analysts.

As in Odisha, so in Andhra Pradesh, a YSRCP victory ensures Congress does not gain.

A lonely battle for BRS

In January, K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) changed the name of his Telangana Rashtra Samithi to BRS and united parties like the Aam Aadmi Party, the Samajwadi Party, and the Left for a Third Front. His hope was, however, short-lived.

A landslide for the Congress in Karnataka in May 2023, to which Muslim vote consolidation contributed significantly, has given the BRS jitters in Telangana, where the community holds the key to at least 40 Assembly seats.

With the Congress preparing to replicate its Karnataka performance and the BJP railing against the KCR government's “pro-Muslim policies”, the BRS is fighting a lonely battle, despite having 102 MLAs in the 119-member Assembly and nine of the 17 Members of Parliament in the LS.

While the BJP accused the state government of misusing Rs 5,221 crore of central funds, the BRS talked about a “false assertion in the LS” that the Centre provided Rs 86,000 crore for the Kaleshwaram project.

Meanwhile, the BJP challenge in Telangana has weakened because of infighting, and Rao’s extensive campaigning in Maharashtra has had the Maha Vikas Aghadi parties, including Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, term the BRS as the “BJP’s B-team”.

In Telangana, as in Odisha and Andhra, a comprehensive win for the BRS in a three-cornered contest splitting anti-incumbency votes would not only mean fewer gains for the BJP but also for the Congress.