Will the strained AIADMK-BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu be back on track?

Annamalai's critique of Dravidian Icons spotlights BJP's quest for relevance in Tamil Nadu amid a strained AIADMK-BJP alliance: Can realpolitik offer a lifeline?

After the electoral debacle in Karnataka, the alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu was seen as crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) prospects in the upcoming Lok Sabha (LS) polls in South India. However, in yet another setback to the national party, the AIADMK called off the long-standing alliance last week.

The immediate reason cited for this was the critical remarks made by the state BJP chief, K Annamalai, about the late Dravidian stalwart Conjeevaram Natarajan Annadurai, popularly known as Anna.

On Friday, a group of senior party leaders visited Delhi to meet Home Minister Amit Shah to discuss the issue.

According to political pundits, the BJP leadership may have to choose between the AIADMK and Annamalai. However, the AIADMK has not ruled out the possibility of forming an alliance with the BJP in the LS polls.

“At present, there is no alliance with the BJP. The issue is not related to the alliance but to Annamalai’s continuous criticism of our iconic leaders like Anna, Amma (Jayaram Jayalalithaa), and Periyar (Erode Venkatappa Ramasamy),” D Jayakumar, an AIADMK leader and former finance minister of Tamil Nadu, told Business Standard.

“During the election, our party leaders will decide on the alliance,” Jayakumar added, leaving room for a potential patch-up.

Recently, Annamalai claimed that Annadurai insulted Hinduism during an event in Madurai in 1956. As a consequence of this statement, Annadurai had to go into hiding in Madurai, only being able to resume his travels after issuing an apology.

Earlier, in June, Annamalai responded to a question regarding whether the period from 1991 to 1996 was one of the worst in terms of corruption. He stated that several administrations in Tamil Nadu were corrupt, leading to the conviction of former chief ministers in courts of law, making it one of the most corrupt states in India. During this period, Jayalalithaa was in power, and the remarks forced the AIADMK to pass a resolution against the state BJP chief.

According to R Venkatesh, a political analyst and faculty member at the University of Madras, Annamalai’s attempt to play Big Brother within the alliance may have also irked the AIADMK leadership.

“Annamalai was trying to accelerate the BJP’s growth in the state. He seemed to be targeting a significant share of votes in the 2026 Assembly elections and was promoting himself more than the alliance,” Venkatesh said, adding that, for 2024, AIADMK still holds the key for the BJP in Tamil Nadu.

The history of the AIADMK-BJP alliance dates back to the 1998 LS polls when the National Democratic Alliance won 30 of 39 seats. At that time, the AIADMK secured 26 per cent of the votes, while the BJP garnered 7 per cent. However, this alliance lasted for only 13 months, as Jayalalithaa withdrew support from the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government when they refused to drop corruption charges against her.

During this period, the BJP formed an alliance with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and swept Tamil Nadu, winning 26 seats, while the national party’s vote share remained at 7 per cent.

This alliance also broke midway, leading the BJP to partner the AIADMK once again. In 2009, AIADMK contested as part of the Third Front and in 2014 on its own, winning nine seats and 37 seats, respectively. During the same period, the BJP tally remained zero and one, with 2 per cent and 6 per cent share, respectively. It was after Jayalalithaa that both the parties again joined hands.

However, in 2019, the BJP’s vote share decreased to 4 per cent and further down to 3 per cent in the 2021 Assembly elections, indicating a downward trend. This is compared to 3 per cent in 2001 (with DMK), 2 per cent in 2006 (contested alone), 2 per cent in 2011 (contested alone), and 4 per cent in 2016 (contested alone).

Experts also attribute this trend to the rising popularity of Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin and the absence of a strong Opposition leader to counter his stature as the custodian of the Dravidian tradition. Therefore, some experts see this break-up as a strategy to rejuvenate the AIADMK and prevent it from being overshadowed by the BJP.

“The BJP cannot win Tamil Nadu without the AIADMK. It is impossible. Within the AIADMK, the internal battle between the two leaders, Edappadi Karuppa Palaniswami (often referred to by his initials EPS) and Ottakarathevar Panneerselvam, has settled in favour of EPS. Criticising stalwarts like Anna is a significant issue for them, and the party cadres are more opposed to Annamalai than the leaders,” said senior political analyst Sumanth Raman.

“They are natural allies; this is temporary,” added Venkatesh.

Interestingly, AIADMK was formed by Maruthur Gopalan Ramachandran, also popularly known by his acronym MGR, in 1972, and the name ‘Anna’ was added to the party, paying respect to Annadurai. Hence, any criticism against the iconic leaders may not go well for the alliance in the long run.

On the other hand, if the BJP leadership goes ahead with Annamalai, the coming months will be a litmus test for him on whether he can increase the vote share above 10 per cent.