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The weaker rupee will push the country's import bill due to higher payments for crude oil, coal, vegetable oil, gold, diamonds, electronics, machinery, plastics, and chemicals, economic think tank GTRI said on Friday. Citing an example, it said the depreciating domestic currency will increase India's gold import bill, especially as global gold prices have jumped 31.25 per cent, rising from USD 65,877 per kg in January 2024 to USD 86,464 per kg in January 2025. Since January 16, last year, the Indian Rupee (INR) has weakened by 4.71 per cent against the US dollar, falling from Rs 82.8 to Rs 86.7. In the last ten years, between January 2015 and 2025, the INR has weakened by 41.3 per cent against the US dollar, falling from Rs 61.4 to Rs 86.7, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said in its report. In comparison, the Chinese Yuan depreciated by 3.24 per cent, from Yuan 7.10 to Yuan 7.33. "Overall, weaker INR will inflate import bills, raise energy and input prices, leading to
Geopolitical tensions, the potential for a renewed US-led trade war under President-elect Donald Trump, rising sustainability-driven barriers, China's overcapacity in key sectors, and rapid advancements in AI will significantly impact global trade in 2025, according to experts. They said Indian exporters and importers should work hand in hand with the government to deal with these challenges. India, they said, need to prioritise their AI (artificial intelligence) strategy as it promises to transform trade logistics and supply chain management and reshape traditional trade patterns. "AI is fast emerging as an important vehicle for future trade's journey. The AI-driven digital transformation is poised to boost not only services trade, but it may also create whole new categories of tradable AI-powered goods -- from autonomous vehicles to robotics and beyond," trade expert and Hi-Tech Gears Chairman Deep Kapuria said. He said while geopolitical tensions are beyond the competency of the
The long voyage time due to ships taking longer routes through Cape of Good Hope has impacted global trade, including Indian exports, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Tuesday. This has resulted in increased time for goods to reach international markets, he said. "No shortage of containers has been, however, reported on account of the longer voyage time or the Red Sea conflicts issues and Russia-Ukraine War," the minister said adding regular interactions are done with shipping lines, port/ terminal, and export/import associations to assess for possible interventions. He added that there is limited demand for containers manufactured in India and accordingly the limited manufacturing capacity for containers in India. The container manufacturing industry is dominated by economies of scale that favour established manufacturers from other countries, who benefit from lower production costs, advanced technologies, and immediate cargo loading opportunities. "The long voy
New elements related to sustainability, inclusivity and security are now playing an important role in global trade discussions and they would dictate the future talks, a senior official said on Tuesday. Additional Secretary in the Department of Commerce L Satya Srinivas also emphasised on the importance of adopting a holistic perspective on the commercial significance of free trade agreements (FTAs) for the country. "On the plate of trade, there are vast new dimensions getting added...How do we deal with those new dimensions...These new regulations and new focus areas of present will dictate our trajectory towards the future," he said at CII's Partnership Summit here. Earlier in trade discussions, the main issues which used to figure included reduction or removal of customs duties and non-tariff barriers. In addition to these, now "new dimensions are coming into the trade play which is sustainability and security induced," he said, adding these issues like environment and labour ar
India's decision to opt out of the trade bloc RCEP was strategically sound as the country has the largest trade deficit and trust issues with China, think tank GTRI said on Friday. India's trade deficit with China stood at over USD 85 billion in FY2024. "Had India joined RCEP, the situation could have worsened drastically, as it would face zero-tariff imports from China, risking further imbalance," the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said. In 2019, India announced that it would not join the China-backed mega free trade agreement -- Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as negotiations failed to address New Delhi's outstanding issues and concerns. "India's decision to opt out of the RCEP was strategically sound, as subsequent developments have validated its concerns over potential economic imbalances, which increasingly favours China over other member nations," GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said. The remarks assume significance as Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam