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The Indian economy is facing the challenge of lower consumption growth as high inflation is impacting people in the lower income bracket, India Ratings and Research Chief Economist Devendra Kumar Pant said on Sunday. He said although the country's economy is now resilient enough to deal with the dual shocks of below-normal monsoon and high global oil prices, the challenge is to bring down inflation so that people can have more disposable income in their hands. "One percentage point reduction in inflation will lead to 64 basis points increase in GDP or 1.12 percentage points increase in PFCE (Private final consumption expenditure) growth... If inflation can be brought down by 1 percentage point, it would be a win win," Pant said in an interview to PTI. PFCE denotes money spent by individuals on goods and services for personal consumption. As per the estimates of Ind-Ra, which is a subsidiary of global rating agency Fitch Ratings, PFCE would grow 5.2 per cent year on year in current
The AAP government's freebies push in Punjab will have the state, which already is one of the most fiscally stressed states, missing the fiscal targets by a wide margin yet again this fiscal, shows an analysis. According to an India Ratings' analysis of the Punjab budget for FY24, the Bhagwant Mann government will likely close the year with a fiscal deficit of Rs 33,216 crore which is a whopping 5.3 per cent of GSDP or gross state domestic product from the budgeted Rs 23,835 crore or 3.8 per cent in FY24. This comes on top of the state closing the previous year with a 5 per cent fiscal deficit. The Centre allows a state to borrow annually only 3 per cent of its GSDP and an additional 50 bps more on meeting certain reforms in the power distribution and public transport sectors. Punjab's fiscal stress will continue even in the medium-term and will remain one of the fiscally most stressed states, says Sunil Kumar Sinha, the senior director at the agency. This is because the state's .
Economic recovery has not yet become broadbased and sustainable as only creamier sections are consuming, India Ratings and Research said on Wednesday and added that the FY24 budget is expected to continue with social sector spending. The annual budget for the financial year 2023-24 will be presented in parliament on February 1. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will focus on making consumption demand resilient, boosting infrastructure and manufacturing capex, skill development and increasing productivity, fiscal consolidation and climate change in the last budget of this government, the agency said. It said there is likely to be a "stark difference" between economic performances of the first and second halves of FY23, which will suggest that it is only the upper layers which are driving the private final consumption, the agency said. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that the gap between have and have nots has widened. ...various social welfare schemes such as PM-KISAN and MGNREGA wil