Recession

As soon as the sun glints over miles of border fence dividing the United States and Mexico, the engines of cargo trucks packed with auto and computer parts roar to life along border bridges and bleary-eyed workers file into factories to assemble a multitude of products geared toward the US market. For more than half a century, this daily rhythm has helped fuel the heartbeat of a transnational machine that generated more than $800 billion in trade between the US and Mexico in 2024 alone. Over the past year, however, President Donald Trump's threatened 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada have plunged manufacturing hubs all along the northern Mexican border into limbo, a state that persists despite a one-month reprieve to which Trump agreed on Monday. Tariffs would cripple Mexican border economies that are reliant on factories churning out products for the US auto parts, medical supplies, computer components, myriad electronics and likely thrust the country into a recession, econom

In 2024, the world's central banks were finally able to start lowering interest rates after largely winning the battle against inflation without sparking a global recession

Gross domestic product expanded 3.9 per cent from July to September compared to the previous three-month period, better than analysts' expectations for 3.4 per cent growth

Stocks decouple, sell-off; Recession odds climb

A continued property crisis and weak consumption dragged on China's economic recovery in July, according to data released Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Unemployment rose for the first time since February, clocking in at 5.2 per cent, compared to 5 per cent in June. Industrial production also rose more slowly than the previous month, showing a 5.1 per cent year-on-year increase in July, compared to a 5.3 per cent rise in June. Retail sales grew slightly more than analysts had expected, rising 2.7 per cent year-on-year in July, compared to 2 per cent in June. Statistics bureau spokesperson Liu Aihua said the recovery in consumption will be further consolidated given recent government policies to boost consumer spending. Beijing announced plans last month to use 150 billion Yuan (USD 20.9 billion) in government debt to finance trade-ins for consumer goods such as appliances and cars to stimulate spending. Consumption contributed around 60 per cent of China's economi

A total of 220 panelists with $590 billion worth of assets under management (AUM)) participated in a survey conducted by BofA Securities between August 2 and August 8

The turmoil shaking global financial markets reflects a sudden fear that the Federal Reserve may have held its key interest rate too high for too long, heightening the risk of a US recession. Economists and Wall Street traders now expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate, which influences borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, much faster than they thought just a week ago. Chair Jerome Powell has often stressed that the Fed could quickly lower rates if it decides that it's needed to bolster the economy. The periodic fear of a forthcoming recession has been a hallmark of the post-pandemic economy and has proved wrong every time. Instead, contrary to what most analysts have predicted, steady economic growth and a solid pace of hiring have endured. In the past, the US economy would often flash telltale signals when it was in or near a recession. But those red lights have gone haywire since the COVID-19 pandemic struck and upended normal business activity. The latest red flag w

US stocks fell steeply on Monday amid fears the US central bank has waited too long to begin cutting interest rates

If policymakers pay attention to the needs of the country and act on them, the outcomes will be visible a decade from now-but doing nothing is not an option

The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product expanded by 0.6 per cent in the three months to March, the strongest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021

The fourth quarter GDP figure was also revised down to a negative 0.1% from a previous 0.0%, meaning that the euro zone was in a technical recession in the second half of 2023

New Zealand has entered its second recession in 18 months after the latest round of GDP figures confirmed its economy contracted in the last quarter of 2023. The country's economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in the quarter to December, and 0.7 per cent in per capita terms, the New Zealand's official statistics agency, Stats NZ, announced on Thursday. The latest slip follows a 0.3 per cent contraction in the September quarter, which fulfils the technical definition of a recession. It is New Zealand's second recession event in the past 18 months. Stats NZ said the country New Zealand had returned negative GDP figures in four of the last five quarters, and had a stagnant annual growth rate of just 0.6 per cent. The slump was largely expected with New Zealand's central bank forecasting a flat figure, while bank economists suggested a range of results between a narrow contraction and fractional growth. The data made for worse reading in a per capita context with the last five quarters all .

Dimon said economic indicators have been distorted by Covid-19 and he takes them with "a grain of salt," saying the Fed should wait for more clarity before lowering interest rates

While it seems increasingly unlikely the US economy is headed for recession, small businesses still face headwinds like higher costs and difficulty retaining qualified workers. But owners say they're optimistic as 2024 gets underway, according to a new survey from American Express. Eighty-five percent of all small businesses surveyed said they were satisfied with the success of their business, and 86 per cent said they achieved their 2023 business goals. In August 2023, by contrast, 80 per cent of all small businesses surveyed said their long-term financial confidence was being negatively impacted by the economy. Even in uncertain economic conditions, small businesses continue to demonstrate resiliency and dedication, said Gina Taylor, executive vice president and general manager of American Express' small business products and Business Blueprint. Our latest data shows small businesses see a positive 2024 ahead and they're taking steps, including hiring, and implementing new tools,

Rishi Sunak, who came into power in October 2022, had made five major promises after assuming office, including taming down inflation and growing the United Kingdom economy

The nation's employers delivered a stunning burst of hiring to begin 2024, adding 353,000 jobs in January in the latest sign of the economy's continuing ability to shrug off the highest interest rates in two decades. Friday's government report showed that last month's job gain roughly twice what economists had predicted topped the December gain of 333,000, a figure that was itself revised sharply higher. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.7 per cent, just above a half-century low. Wages rose unexpectedly fast in January, too. Average hourly pay climbed a sharp 0.6 per cent from December, the fastest monthly gain in nearly two years, and 4.5 per cent from January 2023. The strong hiring and wage growth could complicate or delay the Federal Reserve's intention to start cutting interest rates later this year. The latest gains showcased employers' willingness to keep hiring to meet steady consumer spending. It comes as the intensifying presidential campaign is pivoting in no small par

Also, inflation has been falling faster than expected, and the labor market is cooling but not collapsing

Britain's economy struggled to gain momentum in 2023, as households were squeezed by rapid inflation and the highest Bank of England (BoE) interest rates in 15 years

Global wheat, corn and soybean prices - after several years of strong gains - are headed for losses in 2023 on easing Black Sea bottlenecks and fears of a global recession