Are we prepared for an asteroid hit in 2038? Here's what Nasa said

Nasa has issued a warning that if an asteroid with a 72 per cent chance of striking Earth in 14 years were detected, our current preparedness may be inadequate. This revelation comes from the findings of Nasa’s fifth biennial Planetary Defence Interagency Tabletop Exercise.

During this hypothetical exercise, Nasa identified a scenario where a potentially hazardous asteroid, previously undetected, has a 72 per cent probability of hitting Earth in approximately 14 years. Despite the lack of significant known asteroid impact threats in the near future, Nasa expressed concerns about our readiness to mitigate such a threat even with substantial warning.

"Participants considered potential national and global responses to a hypothetical scenario in which a never-before-detected asteroid was identified that had, according to initial calculations, a 72 per cent chance of hitting Earth in approximately 14 years," Nasa reported.

This tabletop exercise included nearly 100 representatives from various US government agencies and international collaborators. The goal was to assess Earth’s capability to respond effectively to a potential asteroid impact.

These exercises are crucial as they offer insights into the risks, response options, and opportunities for collaboration posed by various scenarios, ranging from minor regional damage to possible global catastrophes, Nasa said.

Nasa stated that to complicate this year’s hypothetical scenario, essential follow-up observations would need to be delayed for at least seven months due to the asteroid passing behind the Sun as seen from Earth’s vantage point in space, which would result in a critical loss of time.

The summary of the exercise noted, “During the exercise, participants considered potential national and global responses to a hypothetical scenario in which a never-before-detected asteroid was identified that had, according to initial calculations, a 72 per cent chance of hitting Earth in approximately 14 years.” Specifically, there was a “72 per cent chance of Earth impact on 12 July 2038 (14.25 years warning time).”

However, this initial observation was insufficient to accurately determine the asteroid's size, composition, and long-term trajectory, Nasa added.

The exercise posed a challenging scenario where follow-up observations were delayed for seven months due to the asteroid’s position behind the Sun, complicating efforts to determine its size, composition, and trajectory.

Conducted in April at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, the exercise involved representatives from various US government agencies and, for the first time, international partners.

This exercise also marked the inaugural use of data from Nasa’s Dart (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission. The Dart spacecraft successfully impacted the asteroid moonlet Dimorphos in 2022, demonstrating the potential of using a kinetic impactor to alter an asteroid’s course.

Furthermore, Nasa is working on the NEO Surveyor, an infrared space telescope aimed at detecting and characterising potentially hazardous near-Earth objects well before they pose any danger. This mission is scheduled for launch in June 2028.

Since its establishment in 2016, Nasa’s Planetary Defence Coordination Office has led the agency’s efforts to monitor and address potential asteroid threats.