COP29: 'X' factor could shape Global South's future, climate talks at Baku

After two weeks of intense negotiations at the UN climate conference here, countries are facing an 'X' sitting in a bracket instead of a clear figure for the trillions of dollars needed to help developing nations fight climate change -- a problem they did not create.

Developed countries, which built their economies on fossil fuels and are responsible for most of the greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change, are still avoiding a key question: how much climate finance will they provide to developing countries each year starting in 2025?  At the UN climate conference in Baku, they are required to update the climate finance goal of USD 100 billion agreed upon in 2009 to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year to meet the needs of developing countries amid the intensifying impacts of climate change.

The core of the USD 1.3 billion should be at least USD 600 billion from developed countries' public coffers, as developing countries reject the idea of relying on the private sector, which they argue is more interested in profit than accountability.

It's the final day of the conference, and countries are awaiting a new "acceptable" version of the draft text that can be refined to produce a balanced outcome.

The draft text on the new climate finance package issued on Thursday contained an 'X' in a bracket instead of the amount that the Global South had hoped for.

It left developing nations disappointed and angry, as what replaces the 'X' is a matter of survival for some of the world's poorest and most vulnerable people on the front lines of the climate crisis.

At the start of the conference, the World Meteorological Organisation sounded the alarm: 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record, and the first to cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold -- the point beyond which climate impacts could become more devastating.

According to the Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), an estimated 23.7 million people were displaced in 2023 due to climate-related events, such as storms, floods, and droughts. This number is expected to rise unless developed countries provide the necessary financial support to help developing and low-income nations combat climate change at scale.

Harjeet Singh, a climate activist and Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said developed countries are negotiating in bad faith, shirking their responsibility and shifting the financial burden onto struggling economies.

"By pressuring these nations to mobilise domestic resources they simply don't have, they are perpetuating inequality and deepening the climate crisis," he said.

As per a developing country negotiator, instead of providing quality finance in a transparent manner, the developed world at COP29 has been pushing them to cut emissions but has "conveniently forgotten that they need to pay for it".

"They want a phase-down, a phase-out, ambitious climate plans, sectoral emission cuts, everything, but don't want to pay for it," the negotiator said.

India on Thursday said that it will not accept any effort by developed countries to shift the focus away from climate finance for developing countries and place it on emissions reductions in the Global South.

Without adequate support in terms of finance, technology, and capacity building, the fight against climate change would be severely impacted, it said.

Developed countries have been pushing the argument of "expanding the contributors' base," essentially calling for nations that were classified as developing when the UN climate convention was adopted in 1992 but have since grown significantly, to also contribute to climate finance.

For developing countries, this is a red line. They argue that this would mean reopening and renegotiating the convention and the Paris Agreement.

"Would you renegotiate 1.5 degrees Celsius, too?" another negotiator from a developing country asked.

With just hours to go before the conference wraps up, negotiators are in high-stakes talks, scrambling to salvage the summit and the progress of the last three years. Meanwhile, outside the meeting rooms, civil society members, observers, and journalists are placing bets on how long this will drag on -- it is clear the summit will head into extra time.