Ex-ally Jagmeet Singh moves no-confidence motion: What's next for Trudeau?

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has announced a no-confidence motion against Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, jeopardising his minority government

New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh has announced plans to introduce a no-confidence motion aimed at toppling Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government. This announcement, made via an open letter on Friday, intensifies the growing political crisis for Trudeau, who faces mounting pressure from within his party to step down amid sinking poll numbers.  

 

Trudeau's minority government in crisis  

 

The call for a no-confidence motion comes at a precarious time for the Liberals, with opinion polls predicting a sweeping defeat against the opposition Conservatives in the next federal election, scheduled before October 20, 2025. Singh's NDP, once a critical ally for Trudeau's government, now poses a significant threat to its survival.  

 

Trudeau’s limited options  

 

With his political future hanging in the balance, Trudeau faces several possible scenarios:  

 

1. Resignation

  

Should Trudeau choose to resign, the Liberal Party would need to appoint an interim Prime Minister while organising a leadership convention to elect his successor. However, if elections are called before this convention, the party risks campaigning under an unelected interim leader.  

 

2. Forced removal  

 

While there’s no formal mechanism for ousting a Liberal leader unwilling to step down, Trudeau could face insurmountable pressure from his cabinet and caucus, forcing his resignation.  

 

3. Loss of confidence in Parliament

  

If the NDP’s no-confidence motion garners enough support to pass, Trudeau's government will collapse. In Canada, losing a vote on key issues such as the budget is considered a loss of parliamentary confidence, necessitating the government's resignation or a new election.  

 

4. Intervention by the Governor General

  

Mary Simon, Canada’s Governor General and the representative of King Charles III, holds theoretical power to dismiss Trudeau. However, this scenario remains highly unlikely unless Trudeau loses parliamentary confidence.  

 

5. Surviving through alliances or delay tactics

 

To retain power, Trudeau’s government could seek support from smaller parties or prorogue Parliament, effectively delaying its reopening, currently scheduled for January 27 after the winter break.  

 

(With inputs from Reuters)