 "Global temperature may briefly cross 1.5 degree C threshold by 2028: UN")
On the occassion of the world environment day, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Wednesday warned about the extreme likelihood of the global temperature temporarily exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold between the years 2024 and 2028.
“There is an 80 per cent likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years,” a WMO report warned.
The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1 degree Celsius and 1.9 degree Celsius higher than the 1850-1900 baseline, the report noted.
What is 1.5 degree Celsius threshold
The 1.5 degree Celsius threshold refers to a key goal of the Paris Agreement, an international climate change agreement adopted in 2015. The agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with 1.5 degrees Celsius being the lower limit of this goal.
The 80 per cent chance of at least one of the next five years exceeding 1.5 degree Celsius has risen steadily since 2015, when such a chance was close to zero, the report added. The global average near-surface temperature in 2023 was at 1.45 degrees Celsius.
What happens when global temperature touches 1.5 degree Celsius
The 1.5 degrees threshold for global warming has serious implications, including ‘ice-less summers’ in the Arctic Ocean once per century, impact on six million people due to sea-level rise in coastal areas by the end of this century, grave threat to ecosystems such as insects, vital pollinators, unusual droughts, flooding around the world among others, according to the United Nations.
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The impact of climate change is already visible around the world with extreme heatwaves, drought, floods occurring frequently. In May, parts of north India suffered a significant duration of extreme heatwave period, with temperature touching nearly 50 degree Celsius in many districts.
The 'world environment day' is celebrated annually on June 5.