Human cost of war: Russia-Ukraine conflict leaves 1 million dead or wounded

A report by The Wall Street Journal claimed that in addition to military casualties, Ukraine's birthrate has plummeted to record lows by a three-to-one margin

The war between Russia and Ukraine, now stretching into its third year, has left a devastating mark on both nations. What began as a conflict over borders has spiralled into a human catastrophe, with the toll of dead and wounded surpassing a staggering one million, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. This staggering figure comes as both nations, already grappling with shrinking populations before the conflict, face long-term consequences.

The report claimed that although accurately counting the number of casualties in this war has proven difficult. Both Russia and Ukraine have been reluctant to release official data, and when they do, their numbers are often met with scepticism. Citing a confidential estimate from Ukraine earlier this year, the report suggested that 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died, while 400,000 had been wounded. Meanwhile, Western intelligence estimates suggest Russian losses range from 200,000 dead to around 400,000 wounded.

Keeping war casualties a secret

Both Russia and Ukraine have kept their war casualties confidential. In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that around 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed. However, former political and security officials believe this figure underplays the true scale of losses in order to maintain public morale and continue recruitment efforts.

While the civilian toll remains unknown, some specific tragedies have come to light. For example, Russia’s capture of the southeastern port city of Mariupol in 2022 reportedly claimed over 8,000 lives, according to estimates from Human Rights Watch.

Ukraine's struggle with mobilisation

Ukraine has resisted fully mobilising men aged 18 to 25, a group that typically forms the backbone of a nation’s military force. This decision stems from concerns about the country's demographic future, as these men have yet to start families. Citing military officials, the report added that the average age of Ukrainian soldiers has now risen to over 43, as the country resorts to partial mobilisation, even recruiting small numbers of convicts and foreigners to bolster its forces.

Ukraine faces greater demographic strain in the conflict

While Russia struggles with poorly trained soldiers in its offensive in eastern Ukraine and a recent Ukrainian advance into the Kursk region, Ukraine faces even more severe challenges. With a population only a quarter the size of Russia's, these losses are far more damaging to Ukraine’s long-term prospects, WSJ said.

Both nations were already grappling with population declines due to economic instability before the conflict. The war has only worsened this trend. For Ukraine, the loss of millions of citizens to Russian occupation and displacement, either as refugees or under Russian control, has further eroded its population base. Experts estimate that Russia's attempts to annex Ukrainian territories and absorb their populations are part of President Vladimir Putin’s larger plan to bolster Russia’s demographic strength.

Putin has long emphasised the need to address Russia's population decline. Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, which added around 2.4 million people to Russia’s population, the Kremlin has pushed efforts to “Russify” newly occupied Ukrainian territories. This includes policies aimed at pressuring Ukrainians to adopt Russian citizenship and large-scale child abductions.

Devastating effects on Ukraine's population

Ukraine’s population has suffered greatly since the conflict began. From 48 million in 2001, it had already fallen to 40 million by the start of 2022, prior to the full-scale invasion. The war has driven over six million Ukrainians to flee the country, with further territorial losses to Russia. Ukrainian government estimates suggest the population in Kyiv-controlled regions has now dwindled to between 25 and 27 million.

Decline in birth rate and future prospects for Ukraine

In addition to military casualties, Ukraine's birthrate has plummeted to record lows. In the first half of this year, deaths outnumbered births by a three-to-one margin. The country recorded about 250,000 deaths compared to just over 87,000 births during this period—a 9 per cent decline compared to the previous year, the report added. The demographic outlook for Ukraine remains bleak as the war drags on.

Russia’s strategy also involves making life in Ukraine increasingly difficult. Missile and drone attacks have severely damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, threatening to drive even more Ukrainians abroad this winter if power and heating shortages persist.