Inflation expectations climb in US, Americans predict 4.5% rise in 2024

By Reade Pickert

US short-term inflation expectations climbed to a seven-month high in November and longer-run price views remained at levels not seen since 2011.
 

Americans expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, up from the 4.4% expected earlier in the month, according to the final November reading from the University of Michigan. They see costs rising 3.2% over the next five to 10 years, data Wednesday showed.
 

“Consumers appear worried that the softening of inflation could reverse in the months and years ahead,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

“Despite easing prices at the pump, one-year gas price expectations rose to its highest reading since June 2022, and five-year gas price expectations are their highest since March 2022,” Hsu said.

Treasury yields climbed and the dollar strengthened following the report, while the S&P 500 advanced.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index improved from the previously reported figure, to 61.3 on brighter views of their finances. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 61.

However, the gauge is sitting at a six-month low as views about the short- and long-term economic outlook worsened from October.

Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was asked how an elevated year-ahead inflation reading would impact the central bank’s December rate decision.

Despite the statistic playing a major role in a decision to raise interest rates last year, Powell emphasized inflation expectations are in a “good place” and that the committee looks at a “range of things.”

Buying conditions for durable goods improved from earlier in the month, likely reflecting some discounting of merchandise for the holiday-shopping season. Consumers’ perception of their current and future financial situation increased from earlier in the month.