Iran's Presidential election heads to 2nd round amid voter apathy, tensions

Iran is bracing for a pivotal moment in its political landscape as the country's snap presidential election heads into a second round on Friday, following an initial vote that failed to produce a decisive winner amidst unprecedented voter apathy, CNN reported.

The election was triggered by the tragic death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, which also claimed the lives of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials. With a sense of urgency, three conservative candidates and a single reformist contender entered the race for Iran's highest elected office.

However, the electoral field was significantly narrowed by the powerful Guardian Council, which barred numerous candidates from standing, citing various reasons that ranged from insufficient allegiance to the Islamic Republic's ideals to a lack of qualifications, according to CNN.

The first round of voting, held on June 28, saw none of the initial candidates securing the required majority of over 50 per cent of the vote. Instead, the race boiled down to two prominent figures: reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian and ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. Pezeshkian emerged with a slight lead of 3.9 percentage points over Jalili, garnering 42.5 per cent of the votes compared to Jalili's 38.6 per cent, according to the state news agency IRNA.

Despite the high stakes and contrasting ideologies represented by Pezeshkian and Jalili, the election was overshadowed by the lowest voter turnout in Iran's history since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Out of an eligible 60 million voters, only 24 million cast their ballots, resulting in a dismal 40 per cent turnout.

This significant drop in participation underscored widespread disillusionment and discontent among Iranians towards the ruling clerical establishment, despite Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's call for "maximum participation" to bolster the Islamic Republic against external pressures.

Trita Parsi, a prominent Iran analyst based in Washington, remarked on the unprecedented low turnout, noting that it reflected deep-seated dissatisfaction not only among reformists but also within conservative circles, including members of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has historically been a bastion of support for hardline policies.

In the lead-up to the second round of voting, critical shifts in political alliances have come to the forefront. Analysts have observed a notable split among conservatives, with some factions pivoting their support towards Pezeshkian, despite initial endorsements for other conservative candidates like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in the first round, as reported by CNN.

This shift suggests internal divisions and discontentment with the status quo among conservatives, who are crucial in determining the outcome of the election.

Among those expressing support for Pezeshkian is Sardar Mohsen Rashid, a founding member of the IRGC, who publicly endorsed the reformist candidate and condemned what he termed "cowardly attacks" against him. The unexpected endorsement from figures like Rashid, as well as from Sami Nazari Tarkarani, who led Ghalibaf's electoral campaign, underscores the complexity of alliances and the fluidity of political dynamics in Iran.

While the second round of voting is poised to be a showdown between Pezeshkian and Jalili, the implications of the election extend beyond domestic policy. Iran faces a myriad of challenges both at home and abroad, including a staggering economy, a restless youth demographic, and escalating tensions with regional adversaries such as Israel and the United States.

Economic woes have plagued Iran for years, exacerbated by stringent US sanctions imposed after former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement. The Iranian rial has plummeted in value, inflation has soared to over 30 per cent annually for the past five years, and poverty rates have surged, leaving millions struggling to make ends meet. Pezeshkian has emphasised the urgent need to re-engage with Western powers and seek a pathway to lift sanctions, arguing that dialogue and diplomacy are essential to addressing Iran's economic woes.

On the other hand, Jalili has advocated for a more confrontational stance towards the West, echoing sentiments shared by the late President Raisi, who sought to strengthen ties with Iran's allies in the face of Western isolation. He has emphasised the need for Iran to achieve self-sufficiency and resilience in the face of external pressures, echoing Supreme Leader Khamenei's rhetoric on resistance against Western interference.

The candidates' divergent approaches also extend to social and cultural policies within Iran. Pezeshkian, who hails from an Azeri-Kurdish background, has sought to appeal to minorities, women, and Iran's youthful population, promising greater inclusivity and rights protections. He has been critical of the government's handling of dissent, particularly in the aftermath of widespread protests in 2022, where he argued for a more nuanced approach to governance that respects civil liberties while maintaining order.

Jalili, in contrast, has positioned himself as a staunch defender of Iran's revolutionary principles, advocating for stricter adherence to Islamic law and emphasising national unity and resilience in the face of internal and external challenges. He has pledged to uphold Iran's conservative values and resist Western cultural influences, portraying himself as a bulwark against what he perceives as threats to Iran's sovereignty and identity.

The outcome of the presidential election is not only pivotal for Iran's domestic trajectory but also for its regional and international relations. The country's stance on issues such as its nuclear program, support for regional proxies like Hezbollah, and its role in regional conflicts will be shaped significantly by the new president's policies and leadership style, according to CNN.

Despite the Supreme Leader's overarching authority in Iranian governance, the presidency holds considerable influence over foreign policy and diplomatic affairs. Experts suggest that while the president may not independently dictate Iran's core policies, their approach and diplomatic style can impact the country's international standing and relations with key global players, including the United States, Europe, and neighbouring countries in the Middle East.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House in London, highlighted the factional nature of Iranian politics, noting that not all segments of Iranian society or governmental bodies align uniformly with conservative or hardline policies. She emphasised that nuances within political factions, including the IRGC, reflect broader debates and diversity of opinion within Iran's political elite.

Looking ahead to the second round of voting, analysts anticipate intensified campaigning efforts from both Pezeshkian and Jalili as they vie for support from the sizable portion of the electorate that did not participate in the first round. Both candidates are expected to adjust their strategies and messaging to resonate with undecided voters and mobilise their respective bases of support.

For Pezeshkian, this may involve doubling down on promises of economic reform, human rights protections, and engagement with the international community. His campaign aims to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the status quo and appeal to Iranians seeking tangible improvements in their daily lives.

Jalili, meanwhile, is likely to reinforce his commitment to Iran's revolutionary principles, emphasising self-sufficiency, resistance against foreign interference, and cultural conservatism. He will seek to consolidate support among conservative voters and rally Iranians who prioritise national sovereignty and security, CNN reported.