Joe Biden, Donald Trump neck-and-neck in possible rematch, finds poll

President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward and once-doubtful Democrats falling into line behind his re-election bid, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

Biden appears to have escaped the political danger zone he resided in last year, when nearly two-thirds of his party wanted a different nominee. Now, Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else. Still, warning signs abound for the president: Despite his improved standing Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country’s future, and his approval rating is a mere 39 percent.

Perhaps most worryingly for Democrats, the poll found Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald J Trump, who held a commanding lead among likely Republican primary voters even as he faces two criminal indictments and more potential charges on the horizon. Biden and Trump were tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to the poll.

Biden has been buoyed by voters’ feelings of fear and distaste toward Trump. Well over a year before the election, 16 per cent of those polled had unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, a segment with which Biden had a narrow lead.

“Donald Trump is not a Republican, he’s a criminal,” said John Wittman an air conditioning contractor from Phoenix. “I will vote for anyone on the planet that seems halfway capable of doing the job, including Joe Biden, over Trump.”

About 30 percent of voters who planned to vote for Biden in November 2024 said they hoped Democrats would nominate someone else. Only 20 percent of Democrats said they would be enthusiastic if Biden were the party’s 2024 nominee; another 51 percent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic. A higher share of Democrats, 26 percent, expressed enthusiasm for the notion of Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee in 2024.

Biden had the backing of 64 percent of Democrats who planned to participate in their party’s primary, an indicator of soft support for an incumbent president. Thirteen percent preferred Robert F Kennedy Jr, and 10 per cent chose Marianne Williamson.

Among Democratic poll respondents Biden enjoyed a far wider lead — 74 percent to 8 percent. He was ahead by 92 percent to 4 percent among those who voted in a Democratic primary in 2022.

Biden’s approval rating of 39 percent is historically poor for a president seeking re-election, but it has risen from 33 percent last July. The poll found that 23 percent of registered voters thought the country was on the right track but better than the 13 percent of Americans who believed the same a year ago. More Americans now think the economy is in excellent or good shape: 20 percent, compared with 10 percent in 2022.