Japan's ruling party braces for blow to comfortable majority in lower house

The results could weaken Ishiba's grip on power, possibly leading Japan into political uncertainty, though a change of government was not expected

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's conservative ruling party braced for a blow to its comfortable majority in the lower house of parliament in Sunday's elections as a result of public rage over financial scandals and discontent over a stagnant economy. 

According to exit polls by the NHK public television, Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party is certain to lose the majority in the 465-seat house, the more powerful of Japan's two-chamber parliament. It's still unclear if his ruling coalition with the junior partner Komeito can retain a majority.

  The results could weaken Ishiba's grip on power and if he can't get his party's policies through parliament, he may need to find a third partner.

  Ishiba took office on October 1, replacing Fumio Kishida, who resigned after failing to pacify the public over widespread slush fund practices among Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers. Ishiba immediately ordered a snap election in hopes of shoring up support by using his outspoken, reformist image.

  A total of 1,344 candidates, including a record 314 women, are running for office. Early results are expected within hours.

Ishiba has set a goal of retaining a majority of 233 seats for the ruling coalition between the LDP and its Buddhist-backed Komeito. NHK exit polls indicated that the LDP alone was expected to win 153 to 219 seats, down sharply from 247, a comfortable single majority it held previously. Komeito was expected to win 21 to 35 seats.

  Ishiba, in his final speeches Saturday in Tokyo, apologised over his party's mishandling of funds and pledged “to restart as an equal, fair, humble and honest party.” He said only the LDP's ruling coalition can responsibly run Japan with its experience and dependable policies.

  Once a popular politician known for criticism of even his own party's policies, Ishiba has also seen support for his weeks-old Cabinet plunge.

  The biggest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, is led by centrist leader Yoshihiko Noda who briefly served as prime minister during the LDP's 2009-2012 descent from power.

  Noda's party is expected to make significant gains, with exit polls suggesting a huge increase to as many as 191 seats from 98. Noda says Sunday's election is a rare chance for a change of government, which will be the most effective political reform, though his party has trouble finding other opposition groups with which to cooperate.

  At a downtown Tokyo polling station early Sunday, a number of voters said they considered the corruption scandal and economic measures. But analysts say Ishiba's LDP was expected to remain the top party in Japan's parliament as voters are skeptical about the opposition's ability and inexperience.

  “The public's criticisms against the slush funds scandal has intensified, and it won't go away easily,” said Izuru Makihara, a University of Tokyo professor of politics and public policy. “There is a growing sense of fairness and people are rejecting privileges for politicians.” Makihara suggested Ishiba needs bold political reform measures to regain public trust.

  Ishiba pledged to revitalize the rural economy, address Japan's falling birth rate and bolster defense. But his Cabinet has old faces, only two women and was seen as alienating members of the scandal-tainted faction led by late premier Shinzo Abe. Ishiba quickly retreated from earlier support for a dual surname option for married couples and legalizing same-sex marriage, an apparent compromise to the party's influential ultra-conservatives.

  His popularity fell because of “the gap in what the public expected him to be as prime minister versus the reality of what he brought as prime minister,” said Rintaro Nishimura, a political analyst at The Asia Group.

  The LDP is also being tested Sunday for its ability to break from the legacy of Abe, whose policies focused on security, trade and industry but largely ignored equality and diversity, and its nearly eight-year long rule led to the corruption, experts say.

There could be regrouping attempts among opposition parties to decide whether to cooperate among themselves or join the ruling coalition, political watchers say.

  Potential new partners for the LDP include the Democratic Party of the People, a breakaway group from the CPDJ, which calls for lower taxes, and a conservative Japan Innovation Party, though both are currently denying a possible coalition with the LDP. 

The LDP, whose dissolution of most factions that used to help bring together support for pushing through on elections and on policy, is less cohesive and could enter the era of short-lived prime ministers. Ishiba is expected to last at least until the ruling bloc approves key budget plans at the end of December.