A group of Syrian rebels, led by a former al-Qaeda operative, brought down the two-decade rule of autocrat leader Bashar-al Assad in 12 days. Assad, who had been ruling Syria since 2000, fled to Moscow as rebels took control of the capital city Damascus.
Assad’s fleeing Syria marked the end to a 13-year-old civil war. While the Western nations welcomed the fall of the Assad regime, US President Joe Biden called it “a moment of risk and uncertainty” for the Middle East.
Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, the Syrian Prime Minister under Assad, offered support to any leadership chosen by the people and called for free elections. However, the formation of such a government would be a task given the involvement of different militia backed by various foreign actors.
How the Syrian crisis unfolded
Bashar al-Assad’s family has ruled Syria since 1970. The leader, who came to power in 2000, had been battling a civil uprising against his government since 2011. The civil war worsened with the involvement of different terror groups, including al-Qaeda and Islamic State, which forced Assad to introduce allies Russia and Iran into the war. The country witnessed a chaotic period till 2016 when the pro-government forces launched a brutal military campaign to regain control of rebel-held regions, including Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. The rebels, fraught by infighting, were driven out of central Syria and were mainly confined to northwestern province Idlib.
It was in Idlib where the seeds of the latest rebellion were sown. On 27 November, the rebels, led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise offensive against Assad’s forces and captured Aleppo within 48 hours.
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The leader of the rebellion led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Another group, Turkiye-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), also supported HTS in the siege.
Rebels capture Damascus, Assad flees
The rebels then marched to capital Damascus while capturing the cities of Daraa, Quneitra, Suwayda and Homs on the way. The Syrian forces attempted to resist the rebels. However, with their allies Russia and Iran preoccupied with their own conflicts, the offensive quickly lost momentum.
On December 8, the rebels freed people imprisoned by the Assad regime and took control of Damascus, forcing Assad to flee the country on an Il-76 plane. There were speculations that he might have been killed as his plane stopped sending location data near the Lebanon border. Later, Russia confirmed that Assad’s plane landed in Moscow and that he had been given asylum on ‘humanitarian grounds’.
Key players involved
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani: He is a former al-Qaeda operative and the face of the rebellion. After the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, al-Jolani was sent by al-Qaeda to fight against the Assad regime. He launched al-Nusra Front, the al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria.
In 2013, al-Jolani rejected al-Qaeda operative Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s declaration of a Caliphate and his militia joined the fight against the ISIS terrorists in Syria. In July 2016, al-Jolani distanced himself from al-Qaeda as well in a bid to unify factions in Syria and present a more moderate image. A year later, he merged his faction with other rebel groups and formed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), distancing itself from global jihadist agendas.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani based his operations in Idlib, strategically navigating the complex landscape of extremist groups while leveraging his moderate persona to garner international support. He started giving press interviews, advocated for the building of state institutions and decentralization of power to reflect Syria’s diverse society.
A day before the takeover of Damascus, al-Jolani sat for an interview with CNN where he said that Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional and “no one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions”. Notably, al-Jolani remains a designated terrorist by the US with a $10 million bounty on him.
Bashar-al Assad: A trained ophthalmologist in London, Assad remained the president of Syria since July 2000, after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled the country for nearly 30 years.
His regime has faced criticism for human rights abuses, including suppression of opposition, censorship, and the use of violence against protesters and dissidents. His government’s response to the 2011 protests, part of the Arab Spring, escalated into a brutal civil war. However, with the help of its allies like Russia and Iran, Assad managed to crush the rebellion and keep the jihadi groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda at bay.
However, with Russia engaged in a war with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies – Hezbollah and Hamas – fighting Israel, Assad’s forces could not resist the rebellion led by HTS.
Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali: Assad appointed al-Jalali as his prime minister in September this year. Following the rapid collapse of Assad’s regime, al-Jalali remained in Damascus, overseeing state institutions until a new governing arrangement was established. He has expressed willingness to cooperate with opposition forces and emphasised the importance of preserving state institutions and called for democratic elections.
Soon after the fall of the Assad regime, al-Jalali was seen being escorted out of his home by rebel fighters with AK-47s. According to reports, al-Jalali met HTS leader al-Jolani to discuss a “peaceful” transfer of power.
Hassan Abd al-Ghani: He is the commander of the Turkiye-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and an ally of HTS. Under his leadership, HTS has captured major Syrian cities, including Homs and Damascus. Following these victories, al-Ghani declared Syria free from tyranny and assured the safety of all religious groups, emphasising an end to sectarianism.
According to the Turkish Anadolu Agency, the SNA controls several regions in northern Syria, even more than the territory ruled by the HTS.
Mazlum Abdi: He is the commander-in-chief of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia backed by the US. The SDF, formed in 2015 to combat ISIS, controls significant portions of northeastern Syria, including areas along the River Euphrates.
Abdi released a statement after the fall of Assad regime, hailing it as a ‘historic moment’ in Syria. “We are witnessing the collapse of the despotic regime in Damascus. This provides an opportunity to build a new Syria based on democracy and justice that will secure the rights of all Syrians,” he said in a post on social media platform X.
Notably, SDF and SNA are arch enemy. In late November 2024, clashes occurred on the al-Bab front in northern Syria, particularly in the southern suburb of Tedef, following the withdrawal of government troops. On December 5, the SDF seized territory in eastern Aleppo after clashes with rebel factions, including the SNA. Eleven SNA militants were reported killed in these clashes, according to Kurdish media network Rudaw.
Foreign actors involved in Syria
Iran: Tehran has been a key player in Syria, which has been a part of its 'Axis of Resistance' in the region. Iran provided direct military and financial assistance to Assad, besides supporting his regime through its proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi Shiite militias.
For Iran, Syria is the ‘golden ring of the resistance chain in the region’, which helps it to move weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, Iran and its proxies have been engaged in a bitter conflict with Israel after the October 7 attacks last year, which limited its support to Assad to fight the latest resistance.
Russia: Moscow has been a key player in the Syrian conflict since 2015, and has helped the Assad regime with air support to fight rebellion as well as ISIS militants. Russia has used its veto power in the UN Security Council to block resolutions that would condemn Assad's actions or call for his removal.
For Russia, Syria is a crucial ally in the Middle East, providing access to the Mediterranean Sea via its naval base in Tartus and countering America’s influence in the region. However, Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine limited its support to Assad which led to the fall of his regime.
Turkiye: Ankara’s reasons for involvement in the Syrian war are more domestic than geopolitical. One of Turkiye’s primary concerns has been the presence of Kurdish militant groups in Syria, especially the YPG (People’s Defense Units), which Turkey considers an extension of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party), a Kurdish separatist group involved in an insurgency against Turkey. In response, Turkiye has launched multiple military operations in northern Syria to target these groups.
While opposing the Assad regime, Turkiye has engaged in diplomacy with Russia and Iran, aiming to broker ceasefires and political resolutions. Turkiye also hosts a large number of Syrian refugees and has used the issue as leverage in negotiations with the European Union and other international actors.
US and Israel: The Americans have backed Syrian Kurdish militias in the region to fight ISIS and monitor Iranian influence in the region. This has led to tensions with Turkey, which views the Kurdish groups as terrorist organisations linked to the PKK. After the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, the US conducted airstrikes in Syria targeting ISIS in a bid to prevent the terror group regaining ground amid the recent crisis.
For Israel, the presence of Iranian forces and Hezbollah in Syria poses a direct threat to its security. On December 8, Israel conducted airstrikes in Damascus and nearby areas, targetting weaponry and military intelligence centres to prevent them from falling into the hands of Hezbollah or other hostile actors. The Jewish nation also seized control of a "buffer zone" in Golan Heights, saying the 1974 border disengagement agreement had "collapsed" with the rebel takeover of Syria.
What lies ahead for Syria?
While Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali has called for free elections after the fall of Assad regime, uncertainty looms large over the political future of the country. Popular uprisings against autocratic governments during the Arab Spring – in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen – were much celebrated, but resulted in the arrival of a new strongman.
While HTS leader al-Jolani has spoken about plans to create a government based on institutions and vowed to protect minorities, he has insisted that the rule will be based on Islamic principles. With different rebel groups in play, it is not known whether they will join the government.