 "Trump built a new coalition that won more Latino & African American voters")
Donald Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States has disrupted long-standing assumptions about the US Republican Party’s voter base, which was believed to rely heavily on only ‘white voters’. In 2024, Trump not only increased his support among Hispanic voters but also appealed to younger working-class Americans and those without college degrees, strengthening his support across a broader demographic as he regained the presidency.
According to an Associated Press (AP) survey, Trump secured 42 per cent of the Latino vote this year, a significant increase from 35 per cent in 2020 and 28 per cent in 2016. Among Latino men, support for Trump was nearly split, with 47 per cent voting in his favour, signalling a shift that first emerged in the 2020 election when growing numbers of Latino voters began showing openness to the Republican platform, particularly Trump’s policies.
This trend is likely to impact both major political parties, as there are more than 36 million Hispanic voters eligible to vote in the US. Latinos also now comprise the second-largest ethnic voting group after whites, ahead of Black and Asian-American voters.
Why was Kamala Harris not able to secure more Latino votes?
For years, Democrats have considered Latino voters as part of a unified bloc of non-white voters expected to balance out a declining share of support among white, working-class Americans. However, the 2024 US presidential election has demonstrated that Democrats can no longer rely on Latino voters without actively addressing their concerns, beyond immigration and green cards.
This shift is particularly notable in light of Trump’s previous, often controversial stance on immigration, where he criticised unauthorised immigrants from Latin America as criminals and, during the recent campaign, accused them of “poisoning the blood” of the nation.
His campaign focused on improving the economy, reducing the cost of living, and strengthening border security. This resonated with working-class voters who felt that economic stability and immigration issues were more critical than social issues such as gender identity.
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In regions with high Latino populations, such as Starr County in Texas — a predominantly Hispanic area — Trump’s support grew substantially, garnering 57.7 per cent of the vote. This was up by 10.6 percentage points from 2020 and an impressive 38.8 percentage points from 2016. Trump’s success along the Rio Grande Valley, a major entry point for migrants, further exemplifies his growing traction in areas previously dominated by Democratic support.
What drew Latino voters to Trump in the US?
Exit polls by Edison Research, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, reveal that many Latino voters in the US were drawn to Democratic proposals to legalise millions of undocumented workers, especially those with family members lacking permanent legal status. However, Trump’s appeal centred on addressing their everyday concerns in a straightforward manner.
Latinos are the fastest-growing ethnic group of homeowners, The Wall Street Journal said citing studies. They have nearly doubled their participation in police forces to 14.2 per cent by 2020 compared with 7.8 per cent in 1997, and they have greater trust in police than Blacks, 64 per cent to 56 per cent.
A Pew Research Center survey of Latinos in September also found that 80 per cent were very concerned about the price of food and consumer goods, and 77 per cent about high housing costs — the same number who rate the economy as fair or poor.
After economic issues and abortion, Latinos say immigration is the most important issue for them, ahead of healthcare, crime, housing and other issues, according to a poll of Latinos in October by Florida International University. The same survey found that 36 per cent of Latinos favoured mass deportations and four in 10 were in favour of building a border wall, saying immigrants were often criminals who threatened public safety.
Future of democracy: Deciding factor for US voters
When asked about the most important issue influencing their vote, preliminary data from AP VoteCast Survey reported that about half of voters cited the future of democracy — a concern that transcended party lines. While approximately two-thirds of Harris supporters prioritised democracy, a significant one-third of Trump voters also shared this concern. Other issues such as inflation, immigration, and abortion policy ranked lower on the list of voter priorities.
Harris held an advantage over Trump in perceptions of moral character, with slightly more than half of voters believing she has the moral standing to serve as president, compared to about 4 in 10 for Trump. However, Trump’s legal challenges may have bolstered his campaign, making him appear like a political outsider, despite having a decade of experience, the survey said.
People of colour not just one bloc of voters
These elections have highlighted the importance of recognising the diverse and nuanced political leanings within communities of colour. The surprise in 2016 at the presence of any Black voters supporting Donald Trump reflected this lack of awareness. This was further amplified during the 2020 elections when many media outlets expressed shock at Trump’s active pursuit of Black and Latino votes.
Following election night results, US media outlets have noted that the notion that people of colour form a monolithic voting bloc is outdated and overlooks the complexities of their individual and collective experiences.
Additionally, framing political dynamics as ‘white versus everyone else’ oversimplifies the reality, especially in a time marked by global uncertainties, economic upheavals, and employment challenges.
For instance, while Latino communities often share a narrative rooted in immigration and the pursuit of the ‘American Dream’, they encompass a wide range of political beliefs shaped by varying national origins, economic status, and generational differences. On the other hand, the Black community has historically faced systemic racism and intergenerational struggles stemming from a history of slavery and segregation. These distinct histories have resulted in differing priorities and political motivations.
In addition to these differences, Asian Americans, indigenous people and other communities of colour bring their own perspectives to the political landscape. This was witnessed by the number of Indian-American voters not only supporting Trump but also contesting the elections from the Republican party.