 "Trump found guilty in hush money trial: Can he still be President?")
Former US President Donald Trump faced a historic verdict on Thursday as he was found guilty on all 34 counts of felony in his criminal hush money trial. This landmark ruling, following 9.5 hours of jury deliberation over two days, marks the first instance in US history where a former President has been tried and convicted in a criminal case.
Despite the legal blow, Trump remains a prominent contender in the ongoing 2024 presidential race. The question now arises: Does this conviction impact his eligibility to pursue the highest office in the nation? And what about his right to vote?
Trump’s presidential eligibility unaffected by conviction
Contrary to expectations, Trump’s eligibility to run for President remains intact despite his felony conviction. According to the US Constitution, presidential candidates must meet three basic criteria: They must be at least 35 years old, a natural-born citizen, and have resided in the US for a minimum of 14 years. Notably absent from these qualifications is any mention of criminal history or incarceration, thus allowing Trump to continue his campaign unhindered by legal setbacks.
Even the prospect of imprisonment, though speculative given the non-violent nature of his crimes, his status as a first-time offender, and his advanced age, would not bar Trump from seeking the presidency. Historical precedent offers a glimpse into this possibility, as evidenced by Socialist candidate Eugene Debs’ 1920 presidential bid from behind bars, albeit without significant electoral success.
However, the road ahead for Trump may be fraught with legal battles. While sentencing is scheduled for July 11, the appeals process is expected to extend well beyond the November elections, providing Trump with a window of opportunity to pursue his political ambitions.
Trump’s voting rights hang in the balance
As for Trump’s right to cast his own vote, the situation remains contingent upon the specifics of his sentencing. In his home state of Florida, felons are re-enfranchised upon completion of their sentences, including the settlement of associated fines and fees. Should Trump face imprisonment, his ability to participate in the electoral process hinges on whether he completes his sentence by election day.
Trump’s campaign bolstered by the verdict?
The verdict in the recent trial has indeed sparked significant political reactions, particularly within the Republican Party. Former President Trump’s response characterising the trial as rigged and disgraceful reflects his ongoing defiance against legal challenges. Moreover, the unanimous guilty verdict has galvanised support from Republican leaders, who perceive it as politically motivated.
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This unified stance within the Republican Party is anticipated to strengthen Trump’s campaign, evident in the surge of donations that temporarily overwhelmed the fundraising platform WinRed. This influx also highlights the enduring loyalty and fervent backing Trump commands from his base.
Strategists are capitalising on this momentum by framing Trump as a victim of a politically driven justice system, a tactic that has historically resonated with his supporters.
Despite the gravity of a criminal conviction, Trump's political resilience has defied conventional norms. His candidacy has weathered multiple controversies, including impeachment proceedings, allegations of sexual misconduct, and investigations into his ties with Russia. In comparison, the allegations in this case are perceived as less severe, further cementing Trump’s enduring appeal among his base.
Negative impact looms as well
Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of Republican Women for Progress, a group dedicated to steering the party away from Trump’s influence, told BBC, “I do think it will have an impact and damage him as a candidate.”
She said that younger voters, alongside those with college education residing in suburban areas, have harboured concerns regarding Trump’s conduct and governance approach. “The guilty verdict is going to further shore up those concerns,” Hill-Davis said.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted in April, uncovered that one in four Republicans would withhold their vote for Trump if he were found guilty, while 60 per cent of independents indicated that a conviction would influence their vote against him.
Sarah Longwell, founder of Republican Voters Against Trump, who routinely conducts focus groups, indicated to news agency AP that the guilty verdict might marginally benefit Biden by swaying ‘double haters’ — voters who harbour disdain towards both Trump and Biden — away from Trump.
While immediate reactions from elected Democrats remained subdued, the Biden campaign swiftly issued a fundraising appeal following the verdict. The message read, “We’re thrilled that justice has finally been served. But this convicted criminal can still win back the presidency this fall without a huge surge in Democratic support.”
As Trump awaits sentencing and continues his presidential campaign, the political landscape retains its volatility. His conviction has exacerbated partisan divides, energised segments of his supporters, and simultaneously estranged some Republican voters. The forthcoming months will also reveal the extent to which Trump’s legal entanglements impact his campaign and the broader US electoral dynamics.
(With agency input)