 "US election results 2024: What happens if Harris and Trump end up in a tie?")
US election results: In the event that neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump reaches the 270 electoral votes required to secure the presidency, the election could be forced into a rare scenario where no clear winner emerges. Although such an outcome remains improbable, understanding the process that follows an Electoral College deadlock is essential.
Electoral College system
The US president is chosen not by popular vote, but through a 538-member Electoral College. Each state’s electoral votes correspond to its Congressional representation, comprising two senators and many House representatives based on population. Most states follow a "winner-takes-all" rule, awarding all their electoral votes to the candidate with the most votes in that state, with Maine and Nebraska as exceptions. US Election Result 2024
How a 269-269 tie could happen?
An electoral tie, resulting in each candidate obtaining exactly 269 votes, is unlikely but conceivable under specific conditions. For example, if Harris wins states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania while Trump takes Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a single congressional district in Nebraska, they could end up tied. This deadlock would trigger what is known as a ‘contingent election’.
Contingent election: When the House chooses the President
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In a contingent election, scheduled for January 6, 2025, each state’s House delegation votes as a single bloc, giving one vote per state. To win, a candidate needs a majority — 26 out of 50 state votes. This method favours states with smaller populations, as each has equal voting power regardless of size. Given the current political composition, this arrangement may provide an advantage to Republicans.
Meanwhile, the Senate chooses the vice president, with each senator casting one vote. The candidate with a simple majority wins, creating the possibility of a split administration with a president from one party and a vice president from the other.
Historical precedence: Contingent election
The last contingent election occurred in 1800, where a tie between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr led to a prolonged vote in the House, resolved only after 36 ballots. The experience ultimately resulted in the 12th Amendment, designed to prevent similar ties. However, the amendment does not eliminate the potential for a deadlocked election.
US elections: Implications of a tie
If the 2024 election ends in a tie, the contingent election process would introduce significant political uncertainty. Given the deeply partisan landscape, there could be intense debates and potential delays, leading to increased distrust among voters. This period of uncertainty would place additional strain on the US political system, as the Electoral College process would face scrutiny.
Legal battles
If neither candidate concedes, the election could involve court proceedings similar to the 2000 Bush vs Gore case, where a close result in Florida led to a landmark Supreme Court decision. Any legal disputes between Harris and Trump could involve the Supreme Court again, which may be called upon to adjudicate any contested recounts or other disputes.
An unresolved election outcome could propel the decision-making to Congress and possibly the courts, creating an unusual and highly charged political atmosphere.