US likely to press India on countering China more in Asian waterways

By Sudhi Ranjan Sen

The US is likely to push India this week to take a more prominent role in deterring China in the region, a move that risks deepening tensions between New Delhi and Beijing.

The US wants India to share some of its burden in the Indo-Pacific by increasing its diplomatic and military presence in the region, Indian officials aware of the details said, asking not to be named since discussions are private. 

A bigger presence of the Indian Navy beyond Asian maritime choke-points and in to the tense South and East China Seas is also expected to be discussed, the people said.

Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will meet their US counterparts Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Secretary of the State Antony Blinken on Nov. 10, in New Delhi. Blinken will also meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi at 4:35 p.m. local time. 

It would be wrong to “prejudge” the conversations between the officials, Arindam Bagchi, the spokesperson for India’s Ministry External Affairs, told reporters at a briefing Thursday. The US Embassy in New Delhi didn’t respond to an email seeking comment.

The US and India will, as part of the annual 2+2 dialogue, also review an initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies and are likely to discuss President Joe Biden’s proposed visit to India next year during the country’s Republic Day celebrations, Indian officials said. The White House hasn’t confirmed whether Biden will attend the annual military and cultural parade, held on Jan. 26, as India’s guest of honor. Barack Obama was the last US president to attend the ceremony in 2015. 

The US request comes as it strengthens its alliances across Asia to deter what it sees as an increasingly assertive China, and tries to balance Beijing’s growing economic and military power. The US also faces the challenge of diplomatically and militarily supporting Ukraine and Israel in their respective battles against Russia and Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the US and Europe. 

Modi has moved India much closer to the US as Washington has courted New Delhi in recent years, amid hopes that the South Asian nation can grow into a regional counterweight to China. But India remains wary of being seen to be part of any informal alliance against China, fearing a ratcheting up of tensions along its disputed Himalayan border. 

Border Clashes
 

India and China share a 3,488 kilometer (2,167 miles) unmarked Himalayan border and are engaged in the worst confrontation between the two in four decades.

Soldiers on both sides were killed in hand-to-hand combat in 2020 and the nuclear armed neighbors have since moved hundreds of tanks, missiles and fighter jets closer to the border.  

While New Delhi moved swiftly to discourage investments from China and banned hundreds of Chinese mobile applications in the aftermath of that clash, it remains hesitant of overtly siding with the US against China.

For example, India is a member of the revived Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, also known as the Quad, which also includes the US, Australia and Japan. But it prefers to highlight the economic and developmental aspect of the arrangement than the military role of the grouping, fearing Beijing’s ire.

India has permanently deployed warships at five choke points in the Indian Ocean, stretching from the Gulf of Aden to the Lombok Strait in Indonesia. It has also sailed Indian naval vessels through the South China Sea in recent years. 

However, it remains unclear whether the Indian Navy can take on the additional burden of a more steady presence in the areas the US would want help in. Its warships are at sea for as many as 300 days a year undertaking routine patrols, as it attempts to remain the dominant force in the Indian Ocean amid China’s quickly rising naval prowess.

India is in the process of buying 31 high-altitude endurance drones from the US that will substantially add to its ability to maintain a closer watch over the region.