 "What makes Trump one of the most powerful US presidents in his second term?")
Donald Trump’s recent election victory marks a historic moment for the Republican Party, as he has not only won the Electoral College but also claimed the popular vote, defeating Kamala Harris by a 6 per cent margin. This is the first time since George W Bush’s 2004 win that a Republican has secured the popular vote, which gives Trump a significant mandate. In his 2016 victory, Trump had lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
Despite numerous legal cases against him, his involvement in the 2020 Capitol attack, and his controversial remarks against minorities, Trump managed to win the trust of millions of Americans, setting himself up as one of the most powerful leaders globally.
Trump’s win signals demographic shift in US
Trump’s victory was bolstered by increased support from Black and Latino voters, even as the Democratic Party gained ground among white voters, particularly older women. His strategy involved expanding his appeal in ethnically diverse regions, increasing his vote share by an average of seven points in counties with high non-white populations, compared to a two-point rise in predominantly white counties.
A significant shift was observed in Miami-Dade County, Florida. With a two-thirds Latino population, it had consistently leaned Democratic, with no Republican win since George H W Bush's in 1988. Trump, who had lost the county by 30 points in 2016, achieved a dramatic turnaround, mirroring a broader trend among Latino voters.
In North Carolina, Trump gained traction in areas with substantial Black populations, such as Nash County, where 41 per cent of residents are Black. Previously a contested county, it was secured by Trump this time, indicating his growing appeal in diverse communities. Pennsylvania also showed shifts, with Trump making gains in areas with fewer white, non-college-educated voters—a demographic that had previously been a Democratic stronghold.
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Of the 47 counties that have flipped since 2020, 44 favoured Trump, including 17 that had consistently voted Democratic since 2000. His success in traditionally Democratic areas highlights shifting political dynamics in the US.
Republican control over the Supreme Court
With a 6-3 conservative majority, the Supreme Court remains firmly in Republican hands. This conservative tilt was solidified during Trump’s first term with the appointments of Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. The court’s rulings on issues like abortion and gun rights have reflected this shift and will likely cement conservative dominance for decades.
Trump’s judicial appointments, made with the help of then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, reshaped the court. His appointments included Gorsuch in 2017, Kavanaugh in 2018, and Barrett in 2020, replacing Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg shortly before the presidential election. These justices, in their 50s, could influence the court for the next two decades.
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Sonia Sotomayor, representing the centre-right and liberal blocs, are both in their 70s. Their potential retirements could open opportunities for further conservative appointments under Trump.
Supreme Court grants broad immunity to presidents
Central to Trump’s stance is his interpretation of a recent Supreme Court ruling granting broad immunity to presidents for official actions. Despite facing two impeachment trials, Trump’s ability to navigate legal challenges reflects his strategy of sidestepping traditional presidential constraints, backed by a loyal GOP base in the Senate.
Trump’s return to office may also put several legal cases against him on hold. His special counsel has reportedly considered suspending two federal cases related to his 2020 election actions and classified document handling, following Office of Legal Counsel policies that limit prosecuting sitting presidents. State-level cases, including one in Georgia and his hush money conviction in New York, may now face uncertainty.
Admiration for controversial leaders
Trump’s admiration for controversial international leaders has raised concern about his governance philosophy. He has often praised leaders like Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who have curtailed judicial independence and media freedoms. At a rally earlier this year, Trump lauded Orbán’s leadership, saying, “It’s good to have a strong man at the head of a country.”
Pardoning high-profile criminals
Former FTX co-founder Ryan Salame expressed hope for a pardon from Trump before beginning his seven-year sentence for cryptocurrency fraud. Trump had previously pardoned Anthony Levandowski, a former engineer at Google and Uber, in 2021, after Levandowski was sentenced for stealing trade secrets. Trump also pardoned Gregory Reyes, former CEO of Brocade Communications, who was convicted of securities fraud and fined $15 million.
In contrast, Joe Biden has issued pardons mainly for minor marijuana possession offences.
Trump’s policy agenda and impact on global trade
Trump’s second-term policy agenda includes changes in bureaucracy, climate policy, education, and healthcare. His plans to appoint loyalists to key roles and remove civil service protections could consolidate his power further.
Trump’s campaign promises include implementing the largest deportation operation in US history, potentially deploying the military against perceived internal threats, and prosecuting political adversaries. He has also vowed to complete the US-Mexico border wall.
On trade, Trump has proposed imposing universal tariffs on most foreign goods and a four-year plan to phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods. This aligns with global trends towards protectionist trade policies.
Will Trump enact his policy changes?
If Republicans gain control of both chambers of Congress, Trump could swiftly pass his legislative agenda. While the Senate majority is confirmed, the House of Representatives remains undecided. If Democrats retain control of the House, passing Bills would require compromise.
While US presidents hold veto power, they cannot directly amend legislation but can influence its drafting by threatening a veto. However, Congress can override a veto with a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, ensuring that widely supported laws are not easily blocked.