CV sales pick up but analysts don't bet on manufacturers' optimism

The recovery in core industries and resultant manufacturing output have increased freight demand for transporters, which in turn has supported CV sales

After reporting a 70-75 per cent fall in sales for the first half of FY21, sales of commercial vehicle (CVs), considered a reliable economic bellwether, have started picking up. But can the sector pull out of the rut it has been in over the past two years?

Before the pandemic, the economic slowdown, drying up of infrastructure projects and new axle load norms that allowed truck owners to increase vehicle loads 20 to 25 per cent (effectively endorsing overloading) saw the sector shrink (see chart).  

The current “recovery” is a modest one. In the July-September quarter, CV sales fell 20 per cent