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2006 at the movies

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Surajeet Das GuptaAbhilasha Ojha New Delhi
Fortunes and reputations are riding on the Year of Bollywood.
 
There hasn't been another year like this for the movies in a long, long time. Why, there hasn't been another year like this, say old-timers, ever. A year that will sieve through a range of reigning idols to establish the new badshahs of Bollywood.
 
A year when every producer and every director worth his salt will light up the marquee, however briefly "" to sink in ignominy, or ride the crest of success. A year when older talent must make way for the younger, the hungrier "" or not.
 
A year, you might be tempted to say, like any other. You couldn't be more wrong.
 
Because in 2006, by coincidence almost, every major actor (and alas, they're ageing, our Bollywood heroes) has at least two releases lined up "" films that will reestablish their iconic connection with the masses, or sign their obituaries and consign them to character roles forever.
 
Because in 2006, a year after most movies bombed at the box office, there's a great deal of hope and history and money riding on every big banner in town. This is Bollywood's comeback year. But which production house will survive the year to tell another celluloid tale, and which will perish? 
 
SOON ON THE SCREEN
Film

Budget** (in Rs crore)

KABHI ALVIDA NE KEHNA
Director: Karan Johar
60*
DON
Director:Farhan Akhtar
30-35
DHOOM 2
Director: Sanjay Gadhvi
(Yash Raj Films)
25
BAABUL
Director: Ravi Chopra
25
OMKARA
Director: Vishal Bharadwaj
23
LAGE RAHO MUNNABHAI
Director: Rajkumar Hirani
(a Vidhu Vinod Chopra film)
18
UMRAO JAAN
Director: J P Datta
20-22
JAAN-E-MAN
Director: Shirish Kunder
(Produced by Sajid Nadiadwala)
25
*Industry says that he has overshot the initial budget, which was Rs 50 crore. 
** Figures are based on industry estimates and can  vary
 
Because in 2006, a few beautiful women whom the nation worships might well end up a footnote in Bollywood history, or light up the screen for a little longer.
 
A year, then, on which the fortunes of Bollywood's richest, most powerful A-list will ride. In an industry where playback singers, choreographers, designers and lighting assistants offer prayers on Friday mornings to the deity that controls their destinies, 2006 is the year when Shah Rukh Khan is battling for survival and Aishwarya Rai praying for her career's longevity.
 
It's a year when Karan Johar is betting on his brand to create magic in the aisles. It's a year when the movies are getting bigger, more expensive. It's a year when the titans of the industry are clashing, and from the dust and ashes of defeat, a few good men will snatch victory, to make it to the awards ceremonies next year.
 
No, ladies and gentlemen, 2006 is not just another year at the movies.
 
Weigh the facts. In 2006, Shah Rukh Khan's numero uno status is under serious threat. King Khan's only release in 2005, Paheli was a commercial dud. By comparison, Aamir Khan has already delivered two mega-hits in 2006.
 
Rang De Basanti and Fanaa have raked in around Rs 200 crore at the box office. Producers and distributors are now betting Rs 90 crore on Shah Rukh Khan's releases "" Don and Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna. And waiting for their fortunes to unravel are other contenders "" Saif Ali Khan, Salman Khan, Hrithik Roshan and Abhishek Bachchan.
 
While Shah Rukh remains on intravenous drip till his new releases, joining him in the biggest blockbuster battle in Bollywood ever are Bollywood's top directors Karan Johar, Farhan Akhtar, J P Dutta and Vishal Bharadwaj.
 
And the pecking order for the heroines is being disputed between Rani Mukherji, Aishwarya Rai, Preity Zinta and Priyanka Chopra "" all of them with interesting releases in 2006.
 
Not everyone will survive the year.
 
For behind the glitz and glamour, far removed from the audiences, there's blood on the floor. Controversies and epic battles are brewing. Take director Farhan Akhtar, whose Don was to be the big Diwali release.
 
That is, till producer Yash Chopra decided to take him on with his mega movie Dhoom 2. Fine. Only Chopra went about booking multiplexes so aggressively, there were no decent screens left for Don. Just rumours, both camps hasten to explain; and last heard, a truce has been reached. Dhoom 2 will hit screens after Don.
 
But then, Bollywood is just another business. The unprecedented success of Krrish has already collected Rs 150 crore (and counting, according to director Rakesh Roshan), bringing it into the league of the top five all-time grossers of Bollywood. It's also brought actor Hrithik Roshan back into the reckoning.
 
He will now take on the Small B, Abhishek Bachchan, in Dhoom 2, as the two vie for top slot for the country's most saleable GenX star.
 
Yes, 2006 will be the year that will change some star ratings forever. Kunal Kohli, who directed Aamir Khan and Kajol in this year's big hit Fanaa, says, "Audiences are going to sit back and take note of who will finally emerge as winners." Kohli's bets are on Aamir Khan who, he says, is already leading the race after two clear winners.
 
Agrees film critic Komal Nahta: "It will be a crucial year for Abhishek, especially after Hrithik's success in Krrish. Both have big films coming up to prove their mettle."
 
It's another matter that 2006 also offers an amazing variety of films from big-league directors. "We have love stories, family sagas, even run-of-the-mill stories, but we also have directors who will execute them brilliantly," says Rakesh Roshan.
 
"That, I think, is the magic of 2006." For producer Pritish Nandy, 2006 marks an important trend. "The day of domination of single film actors and actresses is now over. What we will see now see are multi-starrers."
 
Big directors. Big actors. Big bucks. Before earning them, you've got to spend them. And budgets were never bigger than in 2006. Producers together have invested Rs 300 crore on 10 of the largest movies, an increase of 50 per cent over last year.
 
In 2006, at least four films (compared to only Mangal Pandey last year) boast budgets of Rs 30 crore and over. The Rs 50 crore barrier has been breached once again with Karan Johar's magna opus Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna. Last year, the biggest film cost under Rs 40 crore in the making.
 
But then, movies are also making more money than before. Industry estimates show that in the first six months of this year, net box office collections in the domestic market went up by 35 per cent as compared to last year.
 
This year, three movies (compared to none last year) have already made over Rs 50 crore in net collections from the domestic box office alone, with half the year still to go.
 
Overseas collections of at least three movies (Krrish, Rang De Basanti and Fanaa) have crossed the Rs 30-crore mark, and if Roshan is to be believed, Krrish is close to matching Kabhi Khushi Kabhi Gham's record of the highest grosser abroad (Rs 35 crore).
 
Executives at Adlabs (which has picked up overseas distribution of movies like Krrish and some other blockbusters) point out that the overseas rights for multi-starrers are being offered at Rs 8-9 crore, and are still being snatched up. 
 
2006: THE HITS SO FAR***
FilmCost
(in Rs crore)
Domestic 
net collection 
(in Rs crore)
Overseas collection
(in Rs crore)
FANAA2268*30
RANG DE BASANTI 3075*35
KRRISH30120*30
PHIR HERA PHERI16394.1 (in UK)
MALAMAAL WEEKLY6252.6-3
36 CHINA TOWN18232.65(UK)
TAXI NO 921111203
GANGSTER514na
CORPORATE55-6na
*These are gross collections and do not include entertainment and other taxes. Net collections exclude entertainment tax and, in some cases, promotional budgets also. The industry, however, says that the figures in all these cases is much lower than what producers claim. Each print also costs between Rs 50,000-70,000. Adlabs, Rakesh Roshan and YashRaj Films have given official figures 
*** All these figures are based on industry estimates or are quoted directly from producers and could vary widely
 
Says Ronnie Screwvala, CEO, UTV, whose company is involved with film production and distribution: "Nine out of 10 movies today are not losing any money."
 
The easy availability of institutional money might have a lot to do with that. Sanjay Bhandari, a chartered accountant who helps producers get finance, says, "Nearly all the big budget movies this year have been funded, and these include Fanaa, Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna, Umrao Jaan, Dhoom 2, Don and Jaan-e-man."
 
Industry estimates that at least 30 per cent of the cost of the top 10 films (in terms of budget) has been raised institutionally. Producer Ritesh Sidhwani (Don) dissects, "Since you have to return the loan, there is a need to plan out budgets, keep them under tight control and formulate marketing strategies, which helps us look at the film business more professionally."
 
Adlabs, a film processing, financing, production and distribution company, has funded nearly half the cost of Salman Khan starrer Jaan-e-man.
 
Says Manmohan Shetty, chairman of Adlabs, "Earlier, you might have had a good project but no recourse to non-traditional finance. Today, there is more money, but fewer projects."
 
The growth of multiplexes has helped in pushing larger box office collections, as has the increasing trend to push more prints in the market in the first week to reduce piracy. Nearly 55 per cent of Rang De Basanti's theatrical revenues came from the 80-odd multiplexes across the country, and Kunal Kohli agrees that 60-70 per cent of film revenues are generated in multiplexes.
 
And while last year only Mangal Pandey hit the market with 500 prints, in 2006 there are already three blockbusters (Fanaa, Krrish and Rang De Basanti) that have crossed the 500-print release figure, and Karan Johar is expected to hit the market with a staggering 700-print release for Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna.
 
Big banners, big stars "" er, big stories? Well, no. Says Shetty, "Most blockbusters are made with well-known stars. No one is taking risks. You still have a love story with a 40-year-old boy and a 30-year-old girl. New talent is not coming up."
 
But with the box office sizzling, no one is thinking beyond 2006. "The coming six months will only get better," says Kohli. "You'll get to watch the survivors at the awards ceremonies next year." The others can sit back and relax "" the lifetime achievement awards are still light years away.
 

A FEW GOOD MEN
Who'll rule the marquee after the blood spills of 2006...

SHAH RUKH KHAN
Last year's Paheli was critically acclaimed, but no one wanted to watch it. But with Karan Johar's Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna and the remake of Amitabh Bachchan's classic Don, directed by Farhan Akhtar, he's hoping to continue his reign over Bollywood. For now, though, he must be sweating.

ABHISHEK BACHCHAN
Once the actor with the largest flops, his fortunes turned in 2005 (Bunty Aur Babli, Sarkar, Dus) but Bollywood's hottest rising star needs to reinforce his new status in 2006.

He has two multi-starrers this year where he will match his skills with the industry's best (Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna, Dhoom 2) and two films to prove his histrionics (J P Dutta's remake of Umrao Jaan and Mani Ratnam's Guru). 2006 could make or break Bachchan Jr.

AAMIR KHAN
After a muted response to Mangal Pandey last year, Aamir Khan is back in 2006 with two mega hits in a row (Fanaa, Rang De Basanti), which have together raked in Rs 200 crore at the box office (at a combined production cost of Rs 55 crore). That's a record even Shah Rukh, despite two major films, might find difficult to break.

SALMAN KHAN
Last year, Salman's No Entry was the second-highest grosser in Bollywood, though Lucky and Maine Pyar Kyun Kiya barely scraped through to recover their money.

In 2006, Salman has two potential blockbusters in Jaan-e-man and Baabul. Industry experts say that distributors have forked out a staggering Rs 6.2 crore for the Mumbai territory for Jaan-e-man and Rs 8 crore for overseas rights.

HRITHIK ROSHAN
Roshan Jr turns superhero only for director dad Rakesh Roshan, and this year's honours for Krrish are Rs 150 crore by way of collections so far. The film made Rs 100 crore in just three weeks. With Dhoom 2, Hrithik will turn villain as he takes on Abhishek Bachchan for a fight to the finish. One among them will rule.

SAIF ALI KHAN
The industry's dark horse, Saif has been its safest contender for three years with hits like Hum Tum, Salaam Namaste and Parineeta. His negative character in Vishal Bhardwaj's Omkara is being touted as one of the most powerful performances in Bollywood.

Time for the Nawab to oust the Badshah?

CATFIGHT TO THE FINISH
May the best leading lady win

RANI MUKHERJI
Last year, Rani ruled Bollywood with a critically acclaimed performance in Sanjay Leela Bhansali's Black, and as Babli to Abhishek Bachchan's Bunty in Shaad Ali's blockbuster that was also the year's biggest grosser.

This year she has Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna and Baabul (with Amitabh Bachchan) as her big releases, but will have competition from Aishwarya Rai, who is back in Bollywood after a hiatus.

AISHWARYA RAI
Rai's Bollywood success owes a lot to Sanjay Leela Bhansali (Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam, Devdas) after which she went on to deliver some duds, even though she won critical acclaim in movies like Raincoat and the forthcoming Provoked.

She warmed 2005 with a sizzling item song ("Kajrare") last year, and is now back in the reckoning in 2006 with Dhoom 2 and the remake of Muzzafar Ali's classic Umrao Jaan. Will Bollywood's import to Hollywood still command Bollywood in 2006?

PRIYANKA CHOPRA
Of her six movies last year, only Bluffmaster and Waqt did above average biz. And this year she's started off with flak for her performance in the super-hit Krrish. She's got Don with King Khan, where she keeps Kareena Kapoor company, but still needs a powerful performance to elevate her to top position.

PREITY ZINTA
Last year, Salaam Namaste raked in Rs 29 crore to become the fifth highest grosser of 2005. Earlier, Veer Zaara did better with Rs 41 crore in the domestic market alone, but it was Rani Mukherji who walked away with all the accolades. It's now up to her to recover lost ground in Kabhi Alvida Na Kehna and Jaan-e-man.

KAJOL
The semi-retired actress was last seen in Kabhi Khushi Kabhi Gham. Her return this year with Fanaa has been one of the reasons for the film's success. But she's unlikely to enter the rat race full time.

KAREENA KAPOOR
A listless 2005 has made way for Don and Omkara in 2006. Though expectations from both movies are riding high, Kareena will have to share screen space in both movies with Priyanka Chopra (Don) and Konkona Sen Sharma (Omkara), indicating a struggle to gain a foothold in the top list.

 

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First Published: Jul 29 2006 | 12:00 AM IST

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