Business Standard

Balance of power in Myanmar

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Bhaskar K Mitra

This is probably the best book written on Myanmar after 1988. It is a must-read not only for diplomats, political analysts and CEOs of multinationals but also for readers who enjoy racy narrative, fascinating accounts of a bygone era, of Shangri-La, kings and generals, intrigue and heroism, the Tarons, remnants of the only known pigmy race in mainland Asia, and the lives of common people in some of the remotest parts of the region in and around Myanmar.

Thant Myint-U has brought to this book all his scholarship, narrative abilities, objectivity and acute powers of observation during his extensive travels through Myanmar, China and India. The nuances and undercurrents of Myanmar’s relations with China are brought out with great clarity. The author talks about the western media viewing Myanmar as a Chinese lackey, but adds, “the relationship, however, is far more complex.” This complexity is explained clearly with examples.

 

Since the China-Myanmar border was opened in the early 1990, one to two million Chinese have made their home in northern and north-east Myanmar, and everybody speaks about Mandalay becoming a Chinese city. An old Burmese family friend, a teacher in his 50s, tells the author that although Chinese immigration had generated economic activity in Mandalay, the Burmese people felt passed over: “the Chinese have moved in and the Burmese have had to move out.”

From the common man, the author moves to the top: “Burma’s generals were thankful for China’s friendship. But they were the same generation of generals who had fought nearly all their lives against Chinese-backed communist insurgents (and, some believed, regular Chinese soldiers), seeing their men and fellow officers die by the hundreds. Several generals in the 1990s had been trained in the West and had fond memories of America. In their minds something wasn’t quite right.”

A Myanmar army officer tells the author, “We know that India can’t really balance China for us … we would like better relations with the Americans, but as long as they are only interested in regime change, there is really nothing to talk about … we are asked to make risky concessions in return for vague promises. Maybe this works with other countries, but it won’t work with us.”

This is reflected in the Obama Administration’s policy: engagement with sanctions. As a gesture towards improving relations, the Burmese released over a hundred political prisoners and allowed senior US envoys to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi. Washington reciprocated through several small gestures. However, the interest in reaching a deal for full normalisation of relations remains tenuous.

Thant Myint-U also brings out the limitations of Chinese influence and the Myanmar regime’s ability to stand their ground when their core interests are threatened. In August 2009, the Myanmar armed forces carried out a massive strike against the Kokang (ethnic Mandarin-speaking Chinese) living in an enclave near Myanmar’s border with China, forcing almost 20,000 Chinese to take refuge in China. In December 2009, in the Chinese journal Contemporary International Relations, two academics from Yunnan University argued that the Kokang incident “was done to show the West that Myanmar ’s military government is adjusting its foreign policy, from just facing China to starting to have frequent contacts with United States, India and other large nations”.

Since Myanmar’s independence, the West had been a staunch ally and China among its greatest enemies. After 1988, the roles were reversed with unfortunate consequences: “the more the British and the Americans berated the regime at the UN, the more Chinese diplomatic protection became essential to the regime’s foreign policy.” In effect, the West handed over a solution for China’s “Malacca dilemma”, on a silver platter to the Chinese, who in 1999 took stock of the political and economic situation in Myanmar and officially inaugurated their “Western Development Strategy”.

Besides serious political issues, there are interesting stories. Herbert Hoover, about 20 years before he became US President, came to Burma as an up – and – coming partner of an international mining company. He lived for sometime with his family in a hill station called Maymyo and set up his own firm to make money from recently identified silver mines near the Chinese border.

There are many interesting descriptions of visits by Mahatma Gandhi, Rabindranath Tagore and Sarat Chandra Chattopadhyay, who for a while lived and worked in Myanmar .

In the prologue, the author refers to the changing political and economic geography around Myanmar brought about by China and India and poses the central question on Myanmar: “what will be its fate, as India and China nudge closer together?” He adds that while some speak of a new Silk Road of co-operation, others warn of a new Great Game and conflict. The answer is provided in the epilogue.

Thant Myint-U does not shy away from reflecting scenarios of dangerous cross-roads of isolation, violence and conflict but his love for Myanmar permeates the final happier scenario, “one which sees real progress in Burma coupled with a quick end to Western sanctions because a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Burma would be a game changer for all Asia”. Hopefully, Thant Myint-U’s book will be the game-changer for Myanmar too.

The reviewer is former Indian Ambassador to Myanmar 


WHERE CHINA MEETS INDIA
THANT MYINT-U
Faber and Faber Limited
326 pages; Rs 699

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First Published: Sep 27 2011 | 12:45 AM IST

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