IN any sporting contest, the better player tends to be “lucky”. This is so even in chess. It is particularly true at top levels, where preparation involves an element of guesswork. It is only possible to prepare a limited number of systems in depth.
The Anand-Kramnik match, for example, was decided by the Indian GM guessing correctly in pushing 1.d4 with white and defending manic variations of the Slav. Kramnik must have focussed heavily on defending Petroffs and Berlins with black and expected to face Nizmos and Queens Indian with white. The “lucky guesses” translated into big errors, from a tired Kramnik.
The Topalov-Kamsky match saw a different kind of “luck”. The Bulgarian GM was surprisingly, out-prepared. The American GM consistently got decent positions. In the critical final game, Kamsky had a big edge. But Topalov was always up on the clock.
The Bulgarian found acceptable moves quickly in complex tactical positions where the American was let down by a quest for perfection. By move 25 Kamsky was usually operating at a minute per move.
In what turned out to be the final game, Topalov indulged in a gamble. He sacrificed, heading into complications that were objectively lost rather than looking for draws. It would have been outrageous except that Topalov won. The final scoreline of 3-1, =3, looks deceptively in his favour.
Anand is apparently content to coast through Linares at the 50 per cent mark playing experimental stuff. Alexander Grischuk is the clear leader with 7 points from 11 rounds. Vassily Ivanchuk is the only other player with a plus score, on 6. Carlsen, Aronyan and Anand are all at 50 per cent. Grischuk and Ivanchuk are both unbeaten. There are three rounds left and the lead could change since Grischuk has to meet Carlsen, Anand and Aronyan.
Late this year or in early 2010, Anand will defend the world title against Topalov. Stylistically Topalov likes the same sort of complex messy positions that Anand himself often favours. The preparation for that match is likely to be another guessing game and the one who guesses better will probably turn out the “lucky” champion.
The diagram, BLACK TO PLAY (Topalov Vs Kamsky, Game 7, Sofia Candidates 2009) saw play continue 31...Reb8? 32.Qc7! Rc8?! 33.Qxc4 Rxc4 34.d7 Bb1 35.Rd1 Kg8 36.d8Q+ Rxd8 37.Bxd8 Bc2 38.Rdc1 b4 39.Rxa2 b3 40.Ra8 Kf7 41.Rb8. (1-0, 45 moves).
Instead, 31...b4! 32.d7 Reb8! 33.d8Q+ Rxd8 34.Bxd8 Rxd8 followed by b3 leaves white in the dust. One move later, after 31...Reb8? 32.Qc7! Bd3!! is a miracle save due to 33.Rxc4 bxc4 34.Qxb8+ Rxb8 35.h4 Rb1+ 36.Kh2 Rxa1 37.d7 Rh1+ 38.Kg3! h5 39.d8Q+ Kh7 40.Bf6! gxf6 41.Qe7+. The computers take time finding these moves. Kamsky had less than 3 minutes at that stage.
