According to online polls, Anand is the 4-1 favourite to keep his title against Boris Gelfand in the match that begins next Saturday in Moscow. But the perception may be running ahead of reality in considering the Indian titleholder a big favourite.
Anand has a current rating of 2791, after dropping 26 points in the past six months. Gelfand has a rating of 2727 and he's also not been in great form. The differential, 64 points, suggests Anand should score 51-52 per cent. In a 12 game match, Anand should therefore, score 6.25 while Gelfand scored 5.75. Rounding off decimals as you choose, how much would you be prepared to bet?
Over 23 years, Anand has a +6,-5, lead with 24 draws at classical time controls. That suggests the Elo prediction is ballpark. Anand does have an +11, -1 lead in rapid games so he would indeed, be heavy favourite if it goes to tiebreakers.
At any given point since 1989 when they first played, the difference between their respective ratings has never been greater than 100 points. Gelfand's peak rating is 2762 while Anand's peak is 2817. If they're both at their best, the expectation would still be 51 per cent in favour of Anand.
Over 12 games, one big blunder or one big novelty could be enough to swing the score decisively. Since they’re pretty much in the same league in terms of class, that hypothetical swing game could come in favour of either party.
Essentially, 51-49 or 52-48 are good odds to bet at, over say 100 games. Given a sample of 12, it’s close to even. One reason why chess players, who are far more mathematically competent than the average population, see this match as favouring Anand is by comparison with the last two title matches (Anand-Kramnik and Anand-Topalov). Both had narrower rating differences.
Meanwhile Kramnik-Aronyan played out a 3-3 draw in the Zurich Challenge match. Also 15-year-old Vaibhav Suri completed his GM title to become India’s 27th GM and Sasikiran powered his way to 2720 in the rating list.
The Diagram, WHITE TO PLAY (Kramnik Vs Aronyan, Zurich 2012) was followed by 11.Bg5 Nxc3 !? An enterprising queen sacrifice. Normal could be 11.-- Nde7 12. Nxc6 Qxd2+ etc.
Play continued 12.Bxd8 Nxd1 13.Bxc7 Bxc7 14.Nxc6 Ne3 15.Bb5 ! Pulling back with 15. Nb4 Bf4 would be fine for black. Even here, 15. – Bf5 16. Nb4 Bf4 17. Kb1 Red8 keeps a serious initiative for black to compensate for a small material deficit. Now after bxc6 16.Bxc6 Nc4 17.Qd4 Be6 18.Bxa8 Bb6 19.Qd3 Rxa8 20.Re1 Rd8 21.Qe4 g5 white kept a small edge and eventually won (1-0, 42 moves).
Devangshu Datta is an internationally rated chess and correspondence chess player
