Cutting through the noise

Book review of Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

A study of 1.5 million cases found that when judges are passing sentences on days following a loss by the local city’s football team, they tend to be tougher than on days following a win. The study was consistent with a steady stream of anecdotal reports beginning in the 1970s that showed sentencing decisions for the same crime varied dramatically — indeed scandalously — for individual judges and also depending on which judge drew a particular case.

A study at an oncology centre found that the diagnostic accuracy of melanomas was only 64 per cent, meaning that doctors misdiagnosed melanomas in