Don't rock the cradle, or the government will fall

A year in office, and the "6/10" government has plenty to show as its fiascos, near-disasters as well as face-savers. Business Standard looks at 365 days in the life of the UPA.

3 greatest embarrassments
Oops, we did it again!

Goa and Jharkhand
When you appoint active politicians as governors, they play ducks and drakes with constitutional propriety. In both Goa and Jharkhand, the governors were so eager to swear in Congress governments to power, they overlooked the small issue of whether the CMs had a majority or not. Finally, the issue blew up in the centre's face, forcing a U-turn.

ITC and pension ordinances
The government set out to collect revenue regardless of an unfavourable court judgement, and drafted an ordinance to get ITC to pay up. The pension ordinance was a way to circumvent the Left: but as they say, you can run, but you can't hide.

Interviews galore
The first thing Sonia Gandhi did was to grant two Italian journalists interviews. To go one better, among PM Manmohan Singh's first interviews was to the RSS mouthpiece, Panchajanya. (Both were denied later.)

3 greatest coups
Reversing Murphy's Law

Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus
While the normalisation process with Pakistan was begun by the previous government, the UPA decided to go ahead with it, unafraid of the threats and political dangers of reprisal killings in Kashmir.

When India's history is written, this will be seen as a turning point in India-Pakistan relations.

Press Note 18
Every time the PM asked a foreign delegation to invest in India, it would hold up Press Note 18 (which gave draconian powers to Indian partners of foreign investors) as reason not to.

When the PM decided to do away with it, pressures led his ministers to postpone the announcement to scrap it, several times. Until the PM sprang it on unsuspecting ministers at eight hours notice, hinting at the things he could have achieved if he'd had full majority.

Inflation
The government inherited WPI-based inflation of under 5 per cent when it took over in May last year, and the latest data puts it at 5.7 per cent.

International oil prices have been a concern and the government first resorted to a reduction in excise and customs duties, which meant a revenue loss of Rs 5,000 crore.

There were some monetary market interventions too. Then, there was a hike in retail prices. But since November there have been no price revisions, and oil companies are now bearing the burden, shared by the stakeholders. The move has helped the government rein in inflation.

6 biggest fiascos
To err is expected?

Regulator for steel
In this day and age, who needs a steel regulator? But of all people, it was the minister who made the suggestion, which was given a quiet burial later.

Planning Commission's decision to use private consultants
A decision was taken "" then withdrawn. This was the first instance of the Left showing that it may not be in the government but that the government was running on the basis of directions from it.

Private sector job reservation
First, the government decided it would bring in legislation to force the private sector to employ SC/ST employees.

When it realised that writing HR policies for MNCs was not part of its charter, it decided to start a "dialogue" on how industry could serve its social vision. Now, even that exercise has meandered away.

Cash withdrawal tax
As a way of tracking "legal" illegal money, it was an unexceptional device. But lack of communication to its purpose has led to so much dilution that it is no longer a tax, just an inconvenience.

Armed Forces Special Powers Act
Soon after the government took over, the North-east demanded that the Act that gives the army and paramilitary forces unfettered rights be withdrawn.

The government dithered till presented a fait accompli by the state government of Manipur. If this had been done earlier, the anger of a people who feel they have nothing in common with "India" would have been tempered.

Talks with Naxalites
The government saw it is as a socio-economic problem and was willing to talk about it. The Naxalites wanted to come to the talks bearing arms.

While this was being resolved, wanted Naxalites converged on Andhra Pradesh, taking advantage of the ceasefire. Of course, the talks didn't hold, and they're all underground again after a spectacular killing of a top AP Police official.

3 management successes
Finally, a hurrah!

Patents Bill
Teetering between a WTO deadline and pressure from the Left parties, the passage of the Patents Bill was nothing short of a miracle.

The government didn't stand on prestige, and though there were several setbacks "" some ideological, some minister-made "" the Patents Bill was passed by Parliament keeping everyone satisfied.

Oil prices
Oil prices have been the biggest threat to the government since it assumed office. The price of crude for Indian companies increased from $34.6 per barrel in May last year to $46 per barrel now. If prices continue to remain high, it could put pressure on growth, but for now the government's holding out.

Tsunami
There may have been some low-level corruption in the wake of the natural disaster, but on the whole India managed to rebuild her economy much better than neighbouring countries.

In fact, it leveraged the disaster to prove it is no longer a passive third world recipient of aid but in a position to disburse it in its immediate neighbourhood.

6 incomplete tasks
A loaded "in" tray

Labour laws Identified by the PM as one of its thrust areas, the UPA government (like its predecessor) has not managed to make much headway.

While labour minister K Chandrashekhar Rao has held a round of meetings with the trade unions and the industry, the results are yet to show.

FRBM
The deadlines for meeting the zero revenue deficit and 3 per cent fiscal deficit targets was extended to 2008-09, to coincide with the term of the UPA government.

In this year's budget, the FM's decision to provide extra funds for social sector programmes identified by the NAC and the award of the Twelfth Finance Commission meant the targets for 2005-06 could not be achieved

FDI caps
The entire foreign investment regime is being reviewed and the government hopes to liberalise the caps for coal mining, retail and insurance. Procedural simplifications are also on the anvil. But the timing will depend on a go-ahead from the Left.

States reorganisation
The Common Minimum Programme says it will reorganise states. But the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) wants a separate Telangana state in Andhra Pradesh, where a Congress government is in power.

Are central ministerships enough to keep the demand for a separate Telangana under check? If not managed politically, this problem could soon blow up in the government's face.

Subsidy reduction
The idea is to do away with unwanted expenses and target the subsidies at the needy. A policy paper was prepared at the behest of the finance ministry and tabled in Parliament, but is now confined to the dustbin.

Administrative reforms
On the one hand, there is legislation like the Right to Information bill that will dilute the powers of the bureaucracy.

On the other hand, never before has India needed a more active and responsive bureaucracy. The PM has initiated reforms but it is nothing compared to the kind of overhaul the civil services need if the states are to pull up their socks.

2 things to worry about
Read those lips!

Relations between Sonia and Manmohan
We're told they have a more harmonious relationship than any two leaders in the world.

But nature does not tolerate two sources of authority and there are troublemakers aplenty in the Congress who will petition 10 Janpath if South Block isn't listening to them. Watch out for any indication that Gandhi and Singh have stopped talking "" because communication is at the heart of this relationship.

Left's role
The weakest link in the UPA chain. The only thing that's keeping the Left tied down to the Congress is that the BJP-led NDA is staring it in the face.

But there will come a time when Left cadres will become restive at the accommodation it is seen as making, and will demand a severance of ties with the Congress.

This could come as soon as the 2006 assembly elections in Kerala and West Bengal; or later, when the Lok Sabha election will have to be fought. One way or another, it is crucial for the Left to be seen as the one running the government. And the Congress might tire of this.

2 biggest disgraces
Losing face "" literally

Kamal Pande
Never has a Cabinet Secretary been humiliated in this fashion.

Pande was the seniormost officer in his batch and served the NDA government as Cabinet Secretary; but though he had only a few months for retirement, the UPA government replaced him with an officer of its choice, rubbishing its own declarations that it was committed to the autonomy of the bureacracy.

Subsequently, the diminution of the Cabinet Secretary's post has been systematic and sustained "" including dropping him from the newly created body headed by the PM to promote economic content in foreign policy making.

L V Saptharishi
Should a minister at the centre openly back a civil servant's accusation that a statutory body is casteist? What does this say for the minister and for the government?

A serving IAS officer, L V Saptharishi was made the fall guy by the railway minister who encouraged him to criticise the Election Commission for being "casteist" without bothering about the implications.

The country is confused. If the two ECs did indeed make remarks belittling a caste, then the Yadavs ought to rise in revolt.

Instead, it is Saptharishi whom the government is persecuting. It is events like this that are going to erode the government's standing and undermine the PM's authority.

2 decisions that changed the course of the government
...and might do so again!

Sonia Gandhi's "renunciation"
If Gandhi had decided to become Prime Minister, the UPA might have functioned more smoothly. But whether it would have been an effective government is another matter.

CPI M's decision to stay out of government
Blandishments were dangled in the form of several ministerships, and Harkishan Singh Surjeet actually took the proposals to the CPI M politburo.

The other Left Front partners were sorely tempted to join the government. But the Left is waiting to launch a Third Front that it will control.

In the current set up, it is acting as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. It is not a position that can be sustained, and whether it will add to the Left's base or will detract from it remains to be seen.

Who's in, Who's out

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IN

NGOS
The National Advisory Council sanctifies the role of NGOs in decision making. Some ideas are impractical, some Utopian, but it provides an interface with "the people" that can be a valuable input in decision making.

PM's cronies
One of them was appointed minister of state but wanted a cabinet rank, ostensibly to meet industrialists on an equal basis. Efforts were made to appoint another the chief of a UN trade body by the PM personally, but unsuccessfully. Another was at college with the PM and was given a job. But they're all honourable men.

Gandhi family retainers
The law minister is an unabashed supporter of the Nehru-Gandhi family. Satish Sharma is likely to be made minister in the forthcoming reshuffle. V Krishnamurthy is part of a favoured ginger group in government. And R K Dhawan seems to be out of it, paying the price for perceived closeness to P V Narasimha Rao.

OUT

Industry chambers (FICCI, CII)
The Prime Minister might have a lot of personal regard for some of the Chamber office bearers (Dr Amit Mitra is a favourite) but on the whole, policies are not FICCI and CII driven. In fact, the PM has made it clear they shouldn't look to the government to kickstart their business initiatives, and has kept his interaction with these bodies to a minimum.

RSS
No hosting of sadhus and sants in the PMO, an active detoxification drive and hunting down and eliminating pro-Sangh officials/sympathisers is the hallmark of this government.

CBI
It continues to be under the PMO, but this government has used it less than any previous government "" so far, at least.