Rising prices of crude are drawing a variety of responses the world over ranging from charging the full cost of crude to governments subsidising fuel. Developing alternative fuels for driving trains and vehicles is being pursued by industry, individually, in consortiums or in partnerships with governments. Climate change and the impact of increased consumption of energy by countries, especially India and China, have become topics of intense international debate, including in the recently concluded G-8 summit. Contrarily, globalisation and development demand increased transportation. The world is seeking sustainable answers to these challenges.
The authors discuss the growth and development of automobiles, the oil industry, various attempts at developing alternative fuels and vehicles, innovations being brought about by new entrants from the Silicon Valley and elsewhere in addition to related developments in countries such as Brazil, China and India. The book, which is America-centric, ends with a policy prescription for the next President of the United States.
Nuanced insights emerge from the fact that the “big three”, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, are no longer undisputed leaders of the automotive industry. Detroit has become unmindful about concerns like comfort, style, reliability, and reasonable looks in cars. Contrast this with developments in Japan, particularly Toyota, which has “taken over the past, commands the present and is leading the way to the future”. The description of issues that ail big oil and future challenges that oil companies will face makes interesting reading and are well researched. They explain in detail both sides of the debate between petro-pessimists and optimists. The authors shed light on the “Axis of Oil”, an arrangement between America and Saudi Arabia initiated at the end of World War II by Franklin Roosevelt and King Ibn Saud and argue why it is wrong to blame President Bush for America’s inaction on climate change. They suggest America’s car and oil industries got the world into the current energy crisis and in the process may have killed off their own future. They point out the interdependence of these industries, including the seeming collusion to ensure that their respective positions are preserved; in fact, they dub them as “terrible twins” and how, particularly in the United States, they were uninterested in changing the status quo.
It seems as though the world is coming full circle. The electric car built by Thomas Edison in 1889 and the first cars that ran on ethanol were overshadowed by the gasoline vehicle with the invention of the electric starter motor in 1912. Not only are flex-fuel cars that run on gasoline and ethanol back in fashion, electricity is making a comeback. Even diesel is finding favour.
Oil is the problem, not cars, they reiterate. “There is a lot of hoopla surrounding alternate fuels today, the current boom in bio- fuels would end up perpetuating the world’s addiction to oil rather than ending it”. The solution is to reinvent the automobile.
Many examples are cited in the book including the hydrogen loop vision of Stan Ovshinsky, flexi - fuel cars, the hyper car developed by Amory Lovins, Elon Musk’s Telsa Roadstar, Greg Hansen’s plug in hybrid, the BMW liquid hydrogen car, the GM fuel cell electric car, etc. Efforts in Europe have not been covered in detail, however. An entire chapter is devoted to the Prius and the culture at Toyota, and another to developments in China and India. Interestingly, hybrids are not considered cars of the future. It is suggested that China could leapfrog on fuel cells and hydrogen emulating what South Korea did in steel. They contrast this state-led initiative with efforts in “hyper- democratic and corporatist” India, where Ratan Tata, Venu Srinivasan and Rajiv Bajaj find mention. The Delhi CNG experience has also been included.
If oil is not the future what is? The authors argue that potential game changers are flexible engines, hybrid electrics and fuel cells. Nimble outsiders from unexpected quarters varying from the fuel cell laboratories in China to venture capital incubators of the Silicon Valley are challenging the status quo. The world may yet move beyond petrol. The “real and present danger” is that at some point the price of petrol may be so lowered as to threaten the work done in this direction. Zoom ends with a five-point agenda that could enable America to leave oil behind long before the world runs out of it.
The global race to fuel the car of the future is on and worth joining in. Read it.
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The author is Director-General, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers
ZOOM
THE GLOBAL RACE TO FUEL THE CAR OF THE FUTURE
Ian Carson and Vijay V Vaitheeswaran
Penguin Books
Pages 336, Rs 395
