With assembly elections in five states, partnerships will be the theme of politics in 2011.
With five states going to polls, 2011 promises to provide enormous political entertainment. The year will have it all — thrills, spills, excitement, mystery, suspense, romance and closure of a number of scams that broke out in 2010.
The states going to elections are, in chronological order, Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu (polls must be held before May) and West Bengal (before June).
In Assam, which has elected Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the Rajya Sabha, the Congress has 57 MLAs in the 126-member assembly. Supporting it are eight independent MLAs and the Bodo People’s Front (a Congress ally) with 11. Two MLAs from smaller parties are also supporting it. In the Opposition, the Asom Gana Parishad has 24 MLAs, the BJP has 10, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), 9 MLAs and the Left, three.
The role of Badruddin Ajmal, who wants to bring shariah rule in India, will have to be watched. His grip over his party, the AIUDF, is weakening. In the Rajya Sabha elections in Assam earlier last year, two of his MLAs voted for the Congress. Will they all stay with him? Will there be fewer independents this time? Will the AGP-BJP alliance endure? Will their seats go up or come down? The final verdict can go any way.
In Kerala, with 140 assembly seats, the outcome is in little doubt. Governments are given alternate terms and the CPI(M) is in power now, so it will be the Congress next. This was clear from the Congress plenary session in Burari where the senior-most leader from Kerala, A K Antony, went on a walkabout through the enclosure where delegates from the state were sitting. He was flanked by Ramesh Chennithala on one side and Oomen Chandy on the other. Hovering behind him was Vayalar Ravi. Chennithala told Business Standard with a wide grin: “We will form the government this time.” And who will be the chief minister? Chennithala tried to look modest but failed utterly. “I have worked very hard” he said. Chandy’s supporters are equally clear that “this time Antony saar will not overlook Chandy’s contribution”. Sneaking through could be Ravi, one of the most accessible and jovial ministers from the state.
Puducherry (30 assembly seats) should mimic neighbouring Tamil Nadu, but it doesn’t. While the Dravidian parties are present here, the Congress has routinely contested a large number of seats and remained a senior partner in seat-sharing alliances. So, in this election, if internecine strife does not erode the Congress, it could probably form a government here.
Tamil Nadu, now, is a different ball game. In the 234-member assembly, the Congress is a junior partner of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), though it supports the government from the outside. In return, M Karunanidhi is supporting the Congress government at the centre.
In terms of power and pelf, it is probably accurate to say that the DMK enjoys the balance of the advantage in the relationship. Right now, it is the Congress which is paying heavily for the transgressions of a DMK minister. It is too early to judge if the telecom scam will cast its shadow on the relationship. But judging by the compliments that Karunanidhi paid Sonia Gandhi on her birthday earlier this month (“Under your dynamic guidance and meaningful watch, the United Progressive Alliance government is providing the best governance at the centre…the people of Tamil Nadu have great love, affection and respect for the Gandhi-Nehru family”), the two partners are not likely to part ways soon. But will the Congress use the current phase of embarrassment to bargain for more seats? And how will Jayalalithaa do in the assembly elections? We will know in less than six months.
The elections in West Bengal (294 seats) will be the one to watch. After 33 years, voters in the state will have an option to vote out a Left Front regime and replace it with a Trinamool Congress-led alliance. If the Left Front is voted back to power, which looks unlikely at the moment, how it will pull itself together? But if it doesn’t, how will it cope with defeat? What will be in store for the state if Trinamool is in the saddle?
Partnerships and how they will work will be the theme of politics in 2011: AGP and BJP, DMK and Congress, Trinamool and Congress, and the internal contradictions in the Left Front in Kerala and West Bengal. The year will also bring greater clarity on the most important political — and private — partnership in India for the last six years: Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. What turn will the creative tension take? That will be the political development of the year.
