By winning the trust vote, Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa may have won the battle. But the jury is still out on whether he’s managed to win the war. The fate of the trust vote result is subject to a judgement of the Karnataka High Court, which is hearing the case of 16 rebel legislators, including 11 of the ruling BJP and five independents against their disqualification by the speaker. The court is scheduled to hear the petition of the independents on October 18.
For the moment, the strength of the 225-member House, including one nominated MLA, has been reduced to 209, with 105 as the half-way mark. The ruling BJP, which has 106 members, including the Speaker, ensured the presence of all its legislators, which enabled the government to garner 106 votes against the Opposition’s 100. But there is more to it than just the numbers. For one thing, the BJP is still in denial about why Yeddyurappa’s government has had to be saved by the skin of its teeth for the second time in six months. The fact is – and the Karnataka Chief Minister won’t like it stated so baldly – that it is Yeddyurappa’s own fault.
In 2007, despite BJP Chief Rajnath Singh’s express instructions that “Mr Yeddyurappa, you SHALL not put in a bid to form a government” at the end of October 2007, he virtually defied the diktat and became Chief Minister with the help of the Janata Dal(S) – for precisely a week from November 12 to 19. In that one week, the BJP lost all the goodwill it had managed to garner after incumbent Chief Minister Kumaraswamy reneged on the BJP-JD(S) arrangement that entailed Yeddyurappa becoming CM for the rest of the term. Yeddyurappa rushed to stake his claim and had to give it up within days.
This time, too, a few days before the Karnataka Cabinet expansion, he flew to Delhi for supposed consultations. However, party President Nitin Gadkari told supporters that Yeddyurappa “came to inform us about a Cabinet expansion, not consult us”.
Everyone knows what a tricky business expanding a Cabinet is. The BJP high command’s advice to the chief minister would have been to just let it be. But Yeddyurappa had to bring his supporters into government and declare his freedom from central control. One of the ministers he issued a warning to is the business partner of a top central BJP leader. At least two ministers, who were dropped, are supporters of Yeddyurappa’s strongest rival in the party. And, frankly, many of his own supporters saw no justification for the return of Shobha Karandlaje in the Cabinet.
So, the Cabinet expansion was not based on political judgement but deal-making. Naturally, this has led to revolts, which the party is fighting to stem now. The BJP may have managed 106 MLAs to vote for it. But, this was because of a ruling by the Speaker, not because the MLAs were won back politically.
But, then, the stakes are high. During the Assembly elections in Bellary, the heart of Karnataka’s mining district, the Congress candidate and mining magnate, Anil Lad, declared Rs 178 crore as his assets. BJP candidate Somashekara Reddy — one of three now infamous Reddy brothers who run a powerful mining business — declared Rs 60 crore. Both used private helicopters freely to campaign (Bellary has the highest number of helicopters per capita anywhere in the country).Two weeks leading up to the Assembly elections, officials of the Election Commission and district administration seized close to Rs 10.5 crore from vehicles entering the city. This is when 70 per cent of Bellary’s population lives below the poverty line. These are figures based on data provided by the nutrition department of the government of Karnataka.
While the BJP has managed to salvage the situation for now, it has lost precious, irreplaceable ground among the middle class in the state. “We were identified by a value system. We’ve seen its naked erosion in this round of instability,” said a BJP leader. When the state cannot hold, the Centre must. And when the Centre can’t, anarchy can be unleashed upon the world. That’s what is happening in Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka.
