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The perils of being Pakistan

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Mayank Mishra
PAKISTAN AT THE CROSSROADS
Domestic Dynamics and External Pressures
Christophe Jaffrelot (Ed)
Random House India
358 pages; Rs 699

In nearly 70 years of its existence, Pakistan has seen three Constitutions, 35 years of military rule, many prime ministers, more terrorist attacks claiming several thousand lives than any other country in the world, a tattered economy that gives the impression of collapsing every now and then and a deeply divided society. This has happened to a country that was to become the "land of the pure" especially created to house the Muslims of the Indian subcontinent.

Is Pakistan's perceived India-phobia to be blamed for the state of the country? Or is the "original sin" of creating a nation based on religion responsible for a perpetually chaotic Pakistan? The present volume analyses all aspects of this issue. Some of the observations are quite revealing in their analysis.
 
In his introductory note, Christophe Jaffrelot writes that Pakistan has been a "client state" and a "pivotal state". The client state status, mostly of the United States throughout history, provided it much-needed funds. But that status has been a source of most of the problems, too. The steady flow of easy money ensured that the country did not have to look at developing alternate sources of revenue. As a result, the tax-to-GDP ratio is low and whenever there has been disruption in foreign aid, the country has suffered.

The patron-client relationship has worked in phases. The first phase began in the 1950s with the installation of "U-2 bases to which Pakistani officials themselves were denied access". The second phase coincided with Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq's regime when "Islamabad had been given considerable leeway, enabling it to promote the groups of Afghan mujahideen it considered with favour," writes Mr Jaffrelot in the chapter analysing Pakistan-US relations.

Incidentally, the years marked by favourable relations with the US were the years of high economic growth. Pakistan in the 1960s under general Ayub Khan was considered a model of development to be emulated by other developing countries. During the 11-year rule of Ayub Khan, Pakistan registered an average annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent. The country experienced similar rates of high growth during Zia-ul-Haq years in the 1980s. The initial years of General Pervez Musharraf touched growth rates of seven per cent as Pakistan became a key ally of the US in the latter's global war on terror.

The chapter on economic development concludes that "the country is structurally able to produce reasonably high rates of economic growth if it is competently governed, political conflicts are managed, and significant amounts of foreign capital inflows are available." The growth rates since 2010 have been closer to three per cent, which is almost half of the rates in Bangladesh.

The political story of Pakistan, however, makes for depressing reading. The country had to wait for a Constitution for nine years and even that survived for a mere six years. Pakistan's first elections based on adult franchise took place in 1970. And 2013 was the first time in Pakistan's history that one democratically elected government replaced another. Democratic institutions have been routinely bypassed and the country's military apparatus has wielded influence even in years of civil rule.

What is more, the country's military has entrenched itself in civil administration. "Through the amendments to the Army Act, the military has empowered itself to try civilians in military courts for offences considered prejudicial to the security of Pakistan," Aquil Shah writes in the chapter on the military and democracy.

The military controls soft power, too, by influencing media and some political parties. The author concludes that "for the foreseeable future, it seems likely that Pakistan might be heading towards an unstable equilibrium of its civil-military arrangement in which formal civilian supremacy becomes a euphemism for the military's formal and active participation in politics and national security."

For many of us, the chapter on the likely trajectory of India-Pakistan relations by Frederic Grare is a must read. The heading "India and Pakistan: Improbable War, Impossible Peace" itself is very revealing. The author's observation that "the combination of Pakistan's unwillingness and India's limitations makes peace between the two countries elusive" says a lot. One hopes sanity prevails sooner than later.

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First Published: Jun 09 2016 | 9:30 PM IST

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