This week saw two events that, while unrelated, told us much about the direction in which American leadership is headed. On Sunday, President Barack Obama hosted his last correspondents' dinner during which he spoke for a good half hour about his presidency and what he thinks the current election cycle will yield.
Then, on Tuesday, Donald Trump won the Indiana Republican primary, forcing his remaining rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, to bow out of the race. With no other candidate to contest his already insuperable lead, Trump is all set to become the Republicans' nominee for president.
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The two events framed what has been an eventful year in American politics. On the one hand, Obama added another feather to his brimming hat, bolstering his reputation as a Renaissance man whose sophistication and wit make him a cut above the rest.
Suave as ever, he poked fun at Trump: "I am a little hurt he's not here tonight. We had so much fun the last time. And it is surprising - you have a room full of reporters, celebrities, cameras. And he says no. Is this dinner too tacky for The Donald? What could he be possibly doing instead? Eating a Trump Steak? Tweeting out insults to Angela Merkel? What's he doing?"
On the other hand, Obama's swansong was drowned out in the noise of an election juggernaut primed to host a contest between Trump and Hillary Clinton, whose delegate lead against rival Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries is insurmountable. No one watching the election cycle at this time last year would have given Trump any chance on the ticket. Such was his reputation that in the initial days, Huffington Post, infamously, decided to cover the candidate in its entertainment section.
That reputation has served Trump well. For all his blatant racism and sexism, he is now a hair's breadth away from clinching the Grand old Party's nomination. If his candidacy thus far is any indication, he will give Clinton a tough fight (though at this time, most polls give her a lead in a head-to-head contest between the two). With his ability to drive the agenda and reach out to his base in often colourful language, it is anybody's guess what the outcome in November will be.
For all the knowing humour he shared at the correspondents' dinner, even Obama must be worried at the rise of a man who has made mincemeat of the president's legacy by giving voice to the angst of the blue-collar, mostly white workforce that has been struggling to make ends meet. Trump's style may be revolting but there is no denying that when he attacks China for dumping exports on the world or when he promises to build a giant wall on the border with Mexico, he sends out a message to middle America that the latter is only too keen to hear.
When he became president in 2008 on an agenda of hope and governance, Obama articulated a new order that seemed to rise above divisions, most notably race, that had long riven American society. In the early days of his presidency, he was tasked with the immediate job of rescuing an economy that had been haemorrhaging on the back of ballooning housing mortgages. Eight years on, the economy is in much better shape - unemployment rate, for example, is only 5 per cent, a decadal low.
Obama has repeatedly sought to draw attention to his economic legacy, on how things could have been so much worse than they are. In an interview to The New York Times, he said: "'I actually compare our economic performance to how, historically, countries that have wrenching financial crises perform. By that measure, we probably managed this better than any large economy on earth in modern history."
It is for historians to verify the truth of that claim but in election season, with systemic issues still plaguing the manufacturing sector, Obama's words have failed to resonate. Ironically, Trump and Sanders - as dramatically different as two candidates could be - have both launched anti-elite crusades that promise to solve problems for the "everyday American". With Sanders out of the reckoning in all likelihood, there is the possibility that not all of his supporters will shift to Clinton, herself viewed as a dyed-in-the-wool establishment candidate.
Should Trump win come November, it would represent the most severe blow to Obama's legacy. Trump has committed to repeal Obamacare, the president's health insurance plan, and take a more offensive stand against the Islamic State, in contrast to Obama's gradual approach. But more than all that, Trump's rise marks the extinguishing of the potential that Obama represented. Obama's ascent to the White House was premised on ridding politics of the hold of the incestuous Washington elite. If eight years down the line, that issue continues to exercise voters, it is clear that Obama, for all his successes, has failed to deliver on his most august promise.
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