Business Standard

Monday, December 23, 2024 | 01:03 PM ISTEN Hindi

Notification Icon
userprofile IconSearch

Mixed signals on industrial production: Economic Survey

IIP recovered in Oct 2012 showing 8.3% growth, however entered into negative zone in subsequent months

Press Trust of India New Delhi
Industrial production presents a mixed picture of sluggishness bottoming out as well as continuing for a little longer period, the Economic Survey 2012-13 said today.     

The industrial production measured on IIP made a smart recovery in October 2012 by showing a growth of 8.3%, but entered into negative zone in the subsequent two months.     

"Notwithstanding a pick-up in industrial growth observed in October 2012, there are mixed signals on whether the slowdown phase has bottomed out or the current sluggishness would persist a little longer," the Survey said.     

Overall industrial performance, continued to moderate from first quarter of 2011-12 with growth turning negative in first quarter of 2012-13, before improving to 2.1% in October-December quarter of 2012-13.     
The Survey, however, said there are at least two factors which suggest some optimism on the industrial front.     

Firstly, data on frequency distribution of products/product groups, which constitute the IIP, indicate the number of products with a negative growth has declined from 182 in fourth quarter of 2011-12 to 160 in October-November, 2012.     

The second factor showing optimism is the RBI's business expectation index, which recorded moderately positive growth in third quarter of 2012-13, after persistent negative growth for the previous six quarters.     

The index tracks IIP growth fairly closely and this suggests a possible bottoming out of IIP growth moderation.     

As per the survey, latest data indicate the growth of the sector could remain moderately positive at around 3% for the current year.     

Growth in IIP during April-December stood at 0.7% against 3.7% year-on-year. The survey said IIP growth remains vulnerable to several domestic factors and external shocks.

Don't miss the most important news and views of the day. Get them on our Telegram channel

First Published: Feb 27 2013 | 4:56 PM IST

Explore News