`Telecom revenue to double by FY09'

Telecom services would continue to record strong growth with teledensity more than doubling to 18% in the next five years while service revenues would double to around Rs 1 lakh crore in 2008-09, according to research and opinion firm Cris Infac.

However, blended average revenue per user (ARPU) is falling at an annual rate of 22.8% to Rs 469 per month over the last four years, Rajnish Kumar Rastogi, head (research) of Cris Infac, said today.

"From a meagre 2.8% in March 2000, teledensity rose to 8% by September 2004. We expect it to reach 18% by March 2009," he said, quoting a Cris Infac report analysing the long-term prospects of telecom services sector.

In unit terms, the telecom subscriber base is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 27% to touch 21.2 crore by March 2009 - driven largely by continuing growth in the mobile services space, he added.

On revenues, he said Cris Infac expects telecom services revenues to double to around Rs 1 lakh crore by 2008-09 from an estimated Rs 49,400 crore in 2003-04.

"Mobile services would contribute over 85% of this increase with the remainder being contributed by Internet and leased line circuits," he said.