 "2015: Bollywood's year of sequels?")
While 2015 has been the year for concept-driven movies, it is also the year Bollywood found success in sequels at the box office. Out of the four sequels released so far, one, Tanu Weds Manu Returns (TWMR), was the year’s first super-hit with a profit of Rs 80 crore. Others, like ABCD 2 and Welcome Back, have also recorded profits. The only outlier in this case is Ab Tak Chhappan 2, which flopped at the box office.
Traditionally, Bollywood has struggled to crack the recipe for a successful sequel. While movies like Sarkar Raj, 1920: Evil Returns and Once Upon a Time in Mumbai Dobara have been made, the success rate is very low. One genre that has shown good success ratio to sequels, however, is over-the-top comedy or adult comedy and horror. Last year Grand Masti, the sequel to the 2004 film Masti, grossed over Rs 100 crore to become a runaway hit. Similarly, movies like Ragini MMS 2 and Hate Story 2 ran into profits, despite having trouble in selling satellite rights due to the suitable for adults content.
Komal Nahta, independent trade analyst and editor of trade magazine Indian Film Information, believes that the success of a sequel depends on the product but it is helped by the brand built by the predecessor. “There are three kinds of audiences for any movie — the indifferent, the resistant and the excited. In case of sequels to successful films, the first two categories becomes less as people do not feel the need to wait for reviews or word of mouth. They are aware of the content to expect through the first film and associate with the brand built by it.”
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What this essentially does is give the film an opening. The first weekend is crucial for any movie since it sets the tone for collections in the days to come. Many a times, the first weekend also helps build a positive word of mouth, which in turn facilitates steady collections in the days beyond the first Friday-Sunday period. This was the case with movies like Tanu Weds Manu Returns and ABCD 2 while Welcome Back amassed most of its lifetime collection in the first weekend.
Ajit Andhare, chief operating officer, Viacom18 Motion Pictures, the studio behind Pyaar Ka Punchanam 2 (PKP2), which releases this Friday, agrees that the first weekend is crucial and his team has been working towards ensuring that collections flow in from the first Friday itself. “We expect a good Friday opening. This is a film franchise that has built a connection with the youth and I expect audiences from the morning and afternoon shows on the release day. While it might not have an A-lister headlining it, the theme of the movie is relatable and resonates with the youth. That is where its strength lies,” he explains.
The absence of ‘star power’ is something that sets PKP2 apart from this peers (in terms of sequels) this year. While TWMR had Kangana Ranaut, high on the success of Queen (2014), ABCD 2 had Varun Dhawan and Shraddha Kapoor, who are among the actors to look forward to among the new lot and Welcome Back had veterans like Anil Kapoor, Nana Patekar and Paresh Rawal in the core cast. PKP2 has retained Kartik Aaryan from the first part, it has new actors for the reaming part of the cast. Nahta says that while the presence of known faces does add to the allure of the film, a good cast is what is important.
In case of PKP2, the absence of a known face presented a challenge and an opportunity to the studio, while it could not bank on star power to pull out all stops in marketing, it did get a chance to promote the film through on-ground engagements.
“Since this a film that resonates with the common issues of the youth, we decided that we will communicate with our TG,” says Andhare. The studio carried out activities at various touch points for the youth and reiterated the theme of the movie, at the same time creating anticipation for PKP2.
Suniel Wadhwa, independent distributor and box office analyst, says, “PKP2 appears to capitalise on strength of youth target audience at the box office and it’s about to set a better opening weekend than its predecessor despite of newcomers as its sequel is known by target audience. If PKP2 beats its predecessor for opening weekend, then it will likely to enjoy a solid opening with a growth on Saturday followed by Sunday.”
Costing remains crucial for sequels since Bollywood has come to realise the virtue of a well hedged project. While the film went on to make Rs 152 crore (net after tax) at the domestic box office, it’s cost (production and promotion included) was around Rs 32 crore, making it easier to break even at the domestic box office level. ABCD 2 cost around Rs 60 crore and still managed to break even after considering domestic and foreign collection (Rs 106 crore and Rs 51 crore, respectively) amounting to Rs 157 crore. Welcome Back, on the other hand, had to bank on satellite and music rights sale to break into profits since it cost around Rs 70 crore.
PKP2 is in safe waters on that count since estimates peg the cost of production and promotion at Rs 23 crore and the film is expected to get around Rs 8 crore from the sale of satellite rights. This means that the studio has to recover a mere Rs 15 crore. the film has to net (after tax) Rs 30 crore to start booking profits for the producers. Trade analysts predict that the movie will manage a Rs 6 to Rs 8 crore opening and around Rs 25 crore in opening weekend collections from India, suggesting the film is comfortably set to break even in the first weekend.
SUCCESS OF SEQUELS
- 2015, so far, saw a good performance of sequels
- Among the four sequels released this year, three recorded profit
- Tanu Weds Manu Returns earned the highest profit, followed by ABCD 2 and Welcome Back
- Ab Tak Chhappan 2 flopped at the box office
- Traditionally, sequels’ success ratio has been very low
- Adult comedy and horror is the genre that has shown good success ratio to sequels
