Prolonged winter in western part of the country is likely to mark a dent in the salt production for the current year. Industry insiders estimated a decline in salt output by up to 30 per cent mainly in the regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan, which put together contributes about 80 per cent to the country's total salt output.
"The extended winter has reduced the rate of evaporation from the salt pans. It is difficult to estimate the exact fall in the output at present but there are fears of a decline of up to 30 per cent in the salt growing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan. This will affect country's overall salt output in the long run," said P N Rao, vice president, Indian Salt Manufacturers' Association (ISMA).
While supplies for edible salt may not be a challenge, a possible dip in output may affect mainly exports and industrial consumption. The industrial salt is used for soda-ash and caustic soda industry, which consumes around 8-10 million tonnes of salt per annum, while demand for edible salt remains in the range of around 6-6.5 million tonnes. The total production of salt for the current year is likely to be around 18.5-19 million tonnes.
According to industry experts, lower-than-normal temperature, during the months of December to February, is believed to have reduced the evaporation rate by half.
"Winter was longer and colder this year. The temperature remained in the range of 6 degree celsius to 28 degree celsius against 10 degree to 32 degree celsius in a normal condition. This reduced the evaporation rate by 50 per cent, therefore yield is feared to fall significantly," said B C Raval, general manager at Avantha Group, one of the leading salt makers.
Normally, salt output during the months of December to February stand at around six million tonnes.
However, Raval noted, any further climatic uncertainty or a pre-monsoon rainfall may worsen salt production scenario. "Due to extended monsoon and longer winter, the number of days for harvesting were reduced. Now there is a risk of a untimely rains during summer or early monsoon in Gujarat, which may further hamper salt production," said Raval, who is also the secretary of ISMA.
Gujarat is the largest salt producing state in the country with a total salt production of about 15 million tonnes, hence climatic fluctuations here is likely to affect overall salt supplies in the country.
"Earlier in September last year, we had witnessed heavy rainfall in Kutch and Saurashtra, key salt pan regions. This caused the a delay in production by about 1-2 months. Rains had diluted salt in the salt-pans thereby delaying the evaporation process. In addition to this, extended winter may have some adverse impact on salt production," said Bachubhai Ahir, president, ISMA.
Low output is likely to adversely affect salt prices in the long term. As per the industry data, the industrial grade salt (raw salt) is priced in the range of Rs 600-700 per tonne at different locations in the country, while the edible grade of salt is priced at Rs 1800 to Rs 2000 per tonne.
In spite of tight demand-supply conditions, salt industry is confident of robust export this year.
"Last year we exported about 5 million tonnes of salt, much above the normal export of 3 million tonnes. This year too, we expect salt exports worth 4 million tonnes due to robust overseas demand," informed Rao.
China and Japan are major buyers of Indian salt, while some portion is also exported to countries in middle east, Thailand and Indonesia. China has emerged as the largest consumer of salt in 2010, with about one-fourth of global salt demand.
The latest industry estimate puts global salt demand at 327 million tonnes valuing US $13.6 billion (approx. Rs 67,014 crore ) by 2015 with an annual growth of 2.9 per cent.
