India Inc sees 10% growth

74% CEOs forecast double-digit profit surge: CII poll

A majority of business chieftains in the country expects to end the current financial year with a growth of at least 10 per cent, according to a snap poll conducted by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).

As many as 74 per cent of the chief executive officers said their company's sales would grow more than 10 per cent this year.

Around 35 per cent of the CEOs expects the increase in sales to be between 10 percent and 20 per cent. While 13 per cent expects a growth of 20 percent to 30 per cent, a similar 13 per cent believes it will be between 30 per cent and 40 per cent.

Around 9 per cent of the business heads has a high hope of 40 per cent to 50 per cent growth and 4 per cent puts it above 50 per cent.

On the downhill, 26 per cent of the respondents expects the growth to be less than 10 per cent.

An identical trend of optimism is evident in profit growth expectations. More than 74 per cent of the CEOs is forecasting a double-digit profit surge. While 26 per cent expects the growth to be between 10 per cent and 20 per cent, 13 per cent thinks it would be in the 20 per cent-30 per cent range.

A 4 per cent of the respondents hopes for a 30 per cent to 40 per cent profit increase, while 9 per cent has 40 per cent to 50 per cent growth hopes. Around 22 per cent of the business heads expects profits to grow beyond 50 per cent.

As with the expected growth in sales, only 26 per cent of the respondents expects the profit growth to be less than 10 per cent.

Asked about their forecasts of inflation in the months to come, 43 per cent of the CEOs said they expected it to remain between 5 per cent and 6 per cent.

While 35 per cent feels the inflation rates will fall around 4 per cent-5 percent, 13 per cent thinks it will be around 3 per cent-4 percent. Only 9 per cent of the business chiefs feels the wholesale price index will fall around 2 per cent-3 per cent.

The burgeoning fiscal deficits of both the Centre and states was been pointed out as a serious impediment to sustainable growth in the economy.

Asked if the budget target of a 5.6 per cent deficit of the GDP would be achieved, a majority of the business heads (74 per cent) felt the government would overshoot the target.

While 13 per cent feels the target will be met, a similar 13 per cent thinks the deficit will be less than 5.6 per cent.

The respondents to the survey included among others, Samtel Color CMD Satish Kaura, Eicher group Chairman and CEO S Sandilya, Godrej group Chairman Adi Godrej, SRF Ltd Vice-Chairman and Senior Managing Director Arun Bharat Ram, Bajaj Auto CMD Rahul Bajaj, Bharat Forge CMD Baba N Kalyani, Godrej & Boyce Manufacturing Company Ltd CMD Jamshyd Godrej, Feedback Ventures Chairman Vinayak Chatterjee and Crisil MD and CEO R Ravimohan.

A feel-good factor

• Around 35 per cent of the CEOs expect the increase in sales to be between 10 percent and 20 per cent
• 9 per cent of the business heads have a high hope of 40 per cent to 50 per cent growth and 4 per cent put it above 50 per cent.
• 43 per cent of the CEOs expect inflation to remain between 5 per cent and 6 per cent
• Burgeoning fiscal deficit a serious impediment to growth, say CEOs