Manpower planning: a nouveau narradigm

Many a time when confronting a complex system, we are required to define it through a quantitative model with a need to communicate it to a narrative world; and in the same breath, obliged to convert a narrative based system into a quantitative model. Consequently, mathematical modelling and simulation need to be embedded within a narrative context.

When any system is described as a narrative, within a contextual framework (or paradigm) it is called a narradigm.

Within a domain, starting from an elementary level, it is possible to quickly build up fairly complex and intricate systems using building blocks that were used at the elementary level and deriving and developing new building blocks as the construction proceeds.

And the corollary is a complex system can be studied and its issues resolved by identifying a set of narradigms which fully describe it.

By identifying and understanding the set of narradigms which describe a manpower flow system in a dynamic environment, it is possible to quantify uncertainties and complexities in the system and arrive at a solution set which is both quantifiable and credible.

People in a Pipe "� A Pipedream?:
Traditional manpower planning models looked at "People" in a "Pipe". People joining were inflows and people leaving were outflows.

Resignations, deaths, terminations, etc., were talent leakages, promotions, transfers and redeployment were vertical or horizontal flows and infusion of trainees, unskilled manpower causes of skill dilution.

What organisations were missing out was that 'People' were not willing to go with the flow simply because they wanted to fly in the sky, not flow in the pipe. HR experts embarked on hugely hyped projects to re-engineer their piping systems by varying the diameters, flow rates, valve location and priming pumps.

The Emerging Environment:
HR practitioners today need to understand the context in which they are going to operate in the days to come: Employment is characterised by shorter career horizons with over 40 per cent of young professionals reporting that they expect to remain in the same job for less than 2 years.

Employees are clearly anchoring their career value to employability rather than stability. Employees view their relationship with the organisation as a Development Contract rather than a Performance Contract.

They place greater emphasis on widening their horizons in terms of greater exposure. rather than the traditional motivator-hygiene factors. The traditional 'Piping Model' can no longer hold water.

Career Partnerships:
Planning generates plans; but ideas spawn models. A healthy and meaningful dialogue with employees brings to surface genuine career expectations, aspirations and the need satisficers with their inevitable shelf lives.

Employees are mindful that with burgeoning change and technology explosion, the half life period of skills and competencies is rapidly diminishing making continuous learning not an option but a sine quo non for survival and growth.

Progressive organisations have begun to ideate and resort to scenario building to get a grip of the future. Skills and competencies required for different emerging scenarios are mapped and chunked into 'Capability Demand' clusters. These clusters now serve as a platform for a meaningful dialogue between the employee and the organisation. Succession Planning
Traditional models picturise a sequential movement of talent akin to a relay race with the baton being ceremonially handed over to the next in line. This assumes linearity, constancy of surrounding conditions and seamless flow across the system.

In a dynamic environment, the analogy of a 3 stage rocket would better describe how succession planning is to be addressed. The take-off stage, escape velocity thrust stage and nudging into the right orbit albeit sequential are not identical.

When a critical position in an organisation falls vacant; perhaps due to a promotion or exit; it triggers a movement. This need not be a single stage movement; in reality, there is a high probability of witnessing a cascading effect with multiple triggers down the line. It may so happen that a vacancy may not be replaced but jobs get redefined; roles reconfigured and work flow patterns redesigned.

Power Law Distribution
A single resignation in a critical function can trigger an avalanche of vacancies in the organisation akin to a seismic disturbance pattern. If one were to plot the intensity of the earthquake with the frequency on a logarithmic scale, a straight line will emerge as the pattern in accordance with what is known as the "Power Law Distribution".

Large events are rare, but quite normal. Thus a seemingly complex occurrence can now be reduced to a predictable mathematical model. Such is the power of the Narradigm in patterning 'organisational seismology'.

Agility@Speed of Success:
From the foregoing, it is evident that organisations of the future need to move from standard manpower forecasting models to adaptive techniques.

Establishing career partnerships through development contracts, introducing a system of 'competency recipes' which can ' mix and match' to meet 'Capability Demands' and above all developing employee readiness to move into new work roles with alacrity will pave the way to achieve higher efficiency levels.

Markovian Chain Modelling
A Markovian chain is a random process for which the future depends only on the present state. This is developed by constructing a transition probability matrix which captures the probability of mobility either from one level to another or from within the organisation to outside.

It is possible to construct a probability matrix which captures the probability of moving from say, level M2 to levels M3, M4, M5 and M6 within 4 time periods. Now by superimposing a second probability vector which accelerates the transition from level M2 to levels M3, M4, M5 and M6 on account of various HR interventions.

The author is vice-president, HR & Commercial, Henkel India, and he presented this paper at a conference on succession planning organised by IQPC, Singapore.